UK Data Response Money & Credit (Apr.) April’s money and credit data suggests that consumers were still wary about taking on any additional debt. But even if consumers’ willingness to borrow remains limited, they have enough firepower to... 2nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the renminbi’s strength to last While the renminbi has appreciated recently – to the point that policymakers have stepped in to slow its rise – we continue to think that it will end the year weaker against the US dollar. 1st June 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices will avoid a dangerous bubble House price expectations have taken off since the start of the year, and that raises the risk of a self-reinforcing bubble forming. However, there are no signs that lenders are rapidly loosening... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs may be as good as it gets The key takeaways from China’s May survey data are that while demand remains robust, supply shortages are leading to inventory drawdowns and price inflation. The data are broadly positive for... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack The three-child policy: too little, too late State media announced today that China’s family planning policy will be relaxed to allow all families to have three children, up from the current limit of two. This comes shortly after China’s once-a... 31st May 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Rate hikes coming in Korea as recovery gathers momentum With the economy rebounding strongly from the crisis, the Bank of Korea (BoK) is starting to shift its attention away from supporting growth and towards containing financial risks. We expect the BoK... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (May) The latest surveys suggest that stronger construction activity nudged up overall growth this month and that supply shortages are pushing up prices even as final demand for manufactured goods appears... 31st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Rising US core inflation may push up Treasury yields before long The rise in US core inflation in May adds to evidence that price pressures are building across the economy, which supports our view that Treasury yields will resume their rise before long. 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira touches new low, CEE bond yield divergence It's been a rocky week for the Turkish lira amid more changes at the central bank and political upheaval regarding a possible link between politicians and organised crime. This, coming alongside high... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Troubles in construction unlikely to be repeated elsewhere Output in the construction sector was already 2.3% above its pre-crisis level in March and there is evidence that supply constraints are starting to bite. However, there is still plenty of spare... 28th May 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC’s turn to target currency manipulators After regulators last week pledged to root speculators out from the domestic commodity market, this week it was the turn of the People’s Bank to tackle manipulation in the currency market, which it... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor Surprising on the upside Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output rose further above its pre-virus trend last month thanks to the recent rebound in services and continued strength in industry and construction. We... 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect credit spreads to remain low, with some exceptions We think sovereign and corporate credit spreads will generally remain lows in the next two years. The main exceptions are sovereign credit spreads in Latin America, Emerging Europe and Africa, which... 27th May 2021 · 5 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM equities will rise, not shine We forecast that emerging market (EM) equities will make further gains between now and end-2022 as the global economy recovers further. However, they have lost a bit of ground to developed market (DM)... 27th May 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Focus A primer on our new FX Markets service The purpose of this Focus is to introduce our new FX Markets service, which we launched in May 2021. It is split into three sections. The first provides an overview of the new service. The second... 27th May 2021 · 13 mins read
