Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain COVID-19 surge, Oman strikes, OPEC+ meeting The recent surge in COVID-19 cases in Bahrain – which comes despite a rapid vaccine rollout – will delay its economic recovery and serves as a warning that other countries’ vaccination campaigns have... 27th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks build, central banks start to react The strength of inflation and expectations for a strong economic recovery have prompted a clear hawkish shift among Central European central banks. We think it will take time for a majority in favour... 27th May 2021 · 15 mins read
China Economics Focus The implications for China and the world of eCNY In this Focus we detail what is known about how China’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) will operate, when it will launch, what the People’s Bank is trying to achieve, and whether it will succeed... 27th May 2021 · 29 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflation edges higher Headline inflation rates have increased in almost all countries in the region since the turn of the year reflecting a combination of price pressures as economies re-open, higher food inflation and tax... 27th May 2021 · 15 mins read
RBI Watch Policy to remain loose for a long time yet We agree with financial markets and the analyst consensus that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 4 th June, particularly given that the worst of... 27th May 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Growth in the key monetary aggregates and bank lending has turned up over recent months, driven in part by the Fed’s continued asset purchases. 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Mar./Apr.) House price growth accelerated in March, reaching a record high of 13.9% y/y on the FHFA measure. But there are signs that the boom in prices is now weighing on housing demand and activity. New home... 25th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Signs that price rallies are beginning to falter The prices of most commodities dropped back again this week as global equity markets struggled to make ground and virus cases in parts of Asia continued to rise. Meanwhile, reports emerged that good... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution shock, Colombia’s downgrade The surprise results of the vote last weekend to elect members to Chile’s Constitutional Convention points to a much greater likelihood of rises in public spending on welfare and larger budget... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s policy shift, Turkey’s tight fiscal stance Guidance from Hungary's central bank this week suggests that it is taking the fight against inflation much more seriously and we now think that a monetary tightening cycle will start over the coming... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank monitoring housing for signs of “exuberance” The latest Financial System Review suggests that the Bank of Canada’s concerns about high house price inflation are a key risk to our view that it will wait until early 2023 before raising interest... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Apr.) Global steel production rose again in April as lower output in India, in particular, was offset by sizeable jumps in production in China, Russia and Brazil. For now, virus-containment measures remain... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics BoE to unwind QE before it raises interest rates The rapid rebound in economic activity revealed by this week’s data releases has started to prompt some questions about when and how the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy. Our answers are... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel and the risks to our macro forecasts The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas removes one of the key uncertainties about the outlook for Israel’s economy and we maintain our forecast for a rapid recovery in GDP to take... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine surge, commodity price curbs After a slow start, China’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout is now one of the world’s fastest and is currently responsible for over half of daily inoculations globally. At this pace, China could catch up... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We doubt inflation will send the equity rally into reverse While inflation fears have taken some steam out of the US stock market rally recently, we still think that equities in the US, and elsewhere, will make further gains over the next couple of years. 20th May 2021 · 8 mins read
