China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Credit growth levelled off in June having previously decelerated to the pre-pandemic pace. We suspect this is a pause rather than an end to the slowdown – today’s RRR cut notwithstanding. Either way... 9th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch New climate change facility not a game changer At its July meeting we expect the Bank of Japan to outline that it will offer interest-free loans to banks under its new fund-provisioning measures aimed at addressing climate change. Beyond that... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Pandemic unlikely to herald period of higher inflation With producer prices rising at their fastest pace in years and goods shortages showing no signs of easing, the risks to inflation seem to be tilted to the upside. However, we aren’t convinced that a... 9th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Faster vaccine campaign allows rapid rebound Japan’s lagging vaccine rollout has finally reached cruising speed, which should allow a rapid recovery in activity over the second half of the year. The labour market may soon be as tight as it was... 7th July 2021 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit growth: where do the risks lie? With the (usual) exception of Turkey, the strong rates of credit growth seen in some EMs including Brazil and Korea are unlikely to be sustained as policymakers have already started (or will soon turn... 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rebound underway, but relapse risks grow India’s ferocious second virus wave is subsiding as quickly as it emerged, enabling the recovery to get back on track. However, the rapid scaling back of containment measures that is underway... 1st July 2021 · 19 mins read
China Chart Pack No, China isn’t exporting inflation Some believe that China is adding to global inflationary pressure. The opposite is closer to the truth: the large increase in China’s trade surplus over the past year signals that supply from China... 30th June 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (May) The signs that households have started to borrow again provide us with confidence that May’s surprise fall in retail sales was a result of a shift in spending from retailers to other areas as the... 29th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Transition to carbon neutral 2050 wouldn’t harm growth Achieving net zero emissions in Japan in three decades is a difficult but achievable task. And while the most carbon-intensive sectors may face significant headwinds, overall we agree with PM Suga... 29th June 2021 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The further slowdown in the money supply growth in May is due to big changes during the first lockdown dropping out of the annual comparison. Money supply data will be affected by the pandemic for a... 25th June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (May) May’s public finances figures suggest the strong economic recovery is starting to feed through into lower government borrowing. This reinforces our view that the tax hikes and spending cuts that most... 22nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Surge in home equity won’t trigger credit easing The home equity share has surged to a 31-year high, which in the past may have persuaded mortgage lenders to ease credit conditions. But Ability to Repay regulations brought in after the financial... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Focus The perils of deficit monetisation in Nigeria Nigeria’s government has turned to the central bank to plug ever larger budget deficits in recent years and policymakers are unlikely to kick their deficit monetisation habit, particularly if the... 14th June 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly Industrial slowdown in China a headwind for prices The prices of most industrial commodities held up fairly well this week. However, the slowdown in broad credit growth and the fall in volume terms of China’s imports of industrial commodities in May... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Inflation fears, Euro 2020 hopes The mounting evidence that price pressures are rising is a threat to our forecast that CPI inflation won’t spend a long time above the 2% target until late in 2023. The good news, though, is that if... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recoveries regaining pace after slow start to the year Global GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1 as most parts of the world grappled with renewed waves of coronavirus. The US and Korea were among the few exceptions where recoveries accelerated. But with... 11th June 2021 · 12 mins read
