Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Monetary policy decisions, served three ways After months of anticipation, the Norges Bank will surely pull the trigger on its long-awaited tightening cycle next Thursday. We suspect that policymakers will portray the rate rise as a “dovish hike... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property sector leverage, China’s CPTPP bid Evergrande is the poster child for the excesses of China’s property sector, and its short-term liabilities are particularly high. But the sector is full of similarly-leveraged peers. Indeed, nearly... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What an Evergrande collapse would mean for the world We think that the ‘China’s Lehman moment’ narrative is wide of the mark. On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch D-day looms for Norges Bank as the SNB watches on While the Swiss National Bank is set to leave interest rates on hold yet again next Thursday, the Norges Bank will finally pull the trigger on its tightening cycle. Given the backdrop of global risks... 16th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Slowing recovery eases pressure to hike The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) signalled in August that it is getting closer to raising interest rates, but the gloomy tone of the recent news on the global and UK economies will have reduced the... 16th September 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Sri Lanka avoid default? Falling foreign exchange reserves, a declining currency and a high level of foreign currency debt mean the risk of a sovereign default in Sri Lanka is growing. While the country should be able to... 16th September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed still preparing ground for QE taper We think the sharp slowdown in employment growth in August and broader signs of weakness in the incoming activity data mean the Fed will hold off formally announcing a QE taper at its September... 15th September 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Property crunch will be followed by lasting decline The root of Evergrande’s troubles – and those of other highly-leveraged developers – is that residential property demand in China is entering an era of sustained decline. Relaxation of regulatory... 15th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Stage set for hawkish tweaks to Riksbank’s exit strategy The momentum in the Swedish economy, and jump in inflation in August, gives the Riksbank plenty to ponder at next week’s policy meeting. While repo rate hikes are not on policymakers’ agenda, the... 14th September 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Three points on banking sector liquidity Measures by the Reserve Bank to drain banking sector liquidity have caught attention over the past few days. But with liquidity still abundant, interbank rates at the very bottom of the rate corridor... 14th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR slows down tightening, cycle nearing an end Russia’s central bank (CBR) slowed down its monetary tightening cycle with a 25bp interest rate hike, to 6.75% at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications suggest that there may be just one... 10th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Credit growth dropped in August to its slowest pace since December 2018. With the PBOC now shifting gears to a slightly more supportive stance, credit growth may level off in the coming quarters. But... 10th September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evergrande credit risks, border controls China’s banking system has large enough capital buffers to absorb an Evergrande collapse provided that the PBOC steps in to backstop the interbank market. Meanwhile, the one-sided reopening of the HK... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Shortages stifling activity and boosting inflation The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent... 9th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB slows purchases but keeps policy ultra-loose The ECB today confirmed that it will slow its asset purchases slightly but this is a long way from a “full taper”. We think inflation will drop even further than the ECB expects over the medium term... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Algosaibi deal, Egypt and COVID, UAE Projects of the 50 One of Saudi Arabia’s largest conglomerates, the Algosaibi group, is on the cusp of securing a debt restructuring agreement with its creditors, a sign that recent reforms are helping to speed up... 9th September 2021 · 7 mins read
