Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of risky asset valuations In this Update, we take a look at the valuations of a broad range of the “risky” assets that we cover on our Asset Allocation service. We think that six key points stand out. 14th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Housing boom to test the Riksbank’s dovish resolve The Riksbank will look through the recent pick-up in consumer price inflation in Sweden, which rose above the Bank’s 2% target in April for the first time since May 2019. After all, the energy-driven... 13th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone corporate credit spreads may fall a little further While we don’t think there is much scope for corporate credit spreads generally to narrow much further from here, in our view spreads in the euro-zone could fall a bit more than those in the US or the... 13th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE property sector, Tunisia’s COVID crisis, remittances Recent figures suggest that the downturn in the UAE’s real estate sector has bottomed out but we still hold concerns that increasing supply will exacerbate overcapacity and put further strain on banks... 13th May 2021 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Worsening affordability hits home buying sentiment Mortgage rates have edged down since the end of March, but that didn’t prevent a fall in the share of households who see now as a good time to buy a home to a record low in April. House price growth... 12th May 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We think the US dollar will strengthen again before long We don’t expect the recent weakness in the US dollar to persist. On the contrary, we think that it will strengthen against most major currencies as economic growth in the US outpaces that in the rest... 12th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Both bank lending and broad credit dropped off more sharply than most expected in April. Apart from during last year’s lockdown, loan growth hasn’t been this slow in nearly two decades. 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Colombia’s fiscal drama Recent protests have pushed Colombia’s government away from the fiscal reforms that are needed to reduce the public debt ratio in the coming years. It’s therefore likely that the sovereign will lose... 10th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Mar./Q1 2021) The drop in real retail sales in Q1 suggests that the recovery in consumption slowed last quarter. And with the vaccination drive still slow, we think that consumption will only return to pre-virus... 10th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect gains in EM Asia stock markets to remain small We don’t think stock markets in emerging Asia will come roaring back to life any time soon, and forecast relatively small increases in equity indices there over the next few years. 7th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly (Pe)Ace out, budget balancing act in SA, vaccine patents The suspension of Ace Magashule, the Secretary General of South Africa’s ruling ANC party is likely to go some way in strengthening the hand of President Cyril Ramaphosa in an intra-party fight. But... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Apr.) Headline trade growth picked up last month thanks to favourable base effects. But in seasonally-adjusted terms, exports continued to level off and the rebound in imports stalled. This partly reflects... 7th May 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tourism recovering, Phase One deal remains a dud Domestic tourists made a record number of trips over the recent Labour Day holiday. But in a sign that consumers are still holding back, daily tourism spending was still a fifth below pre-pandemic... 7th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack We think that rotation may leave DM REITs behind Although we forecast that that the “rotation” in equity markets generally has further to run, as COVID-19 is contained and economies re-open, we project that developed market (DM) Real Estate... 6th May 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccination pace finally picks up After contracting again in the first quarter of this year, prospects for the second quarter have improved because the pace of vaccination has accelerated. At its recent pace, the euro-zone is on track... 6th May 2021 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Update Higher commodities prices another tailwind to growth The further strong rises in commodity prices present upside risks to our GDP forecasts, although the boost to growth is likely to be smaller than during previous periods of strong commodity price... 6th May 2021 · 4 mins read
