China Economics Weekly Tech giants in the Party’s crosshairs The abrupt suspension of Ant’s IPO, which was supposed to enter the record books this week as the world’s largest, is a stark reminder of the political risks and lack of transparency that are still... 6th November 2020 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Biden presidency, food inflation, interest waiver We wouldn't rule out a Joe Biden administration taking a more collaborative approach to containing China's geopolitical influence than Donald Trump, which could help strengthen ties between the US and... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting the risks India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Sep.) September’s money and credit data showed that the mini-boom in the housing market continued, but a fall in consumer credit suggests that consumer spending was already faltering before the latest round... 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Indian banks: the world’s weakest link Out of all the banking sectors in major economies, India’s warrants the most concern. It came into the crisis in the worst shape, and the scale of damage to private balance sheets means it will be one... 29th October 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Indian banks: the world’s weakest link Out of all the banking sectors in major economies, India’s warrants the most concern. It came into the crisis in the worst shape, and the scale of damage to private balance sheets means it will be one... 29th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2020) The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey show that bank lending conditions tightened in Q3. And there is a growing risk that they tighten further in Q4, just as the economic activity has begun to slow again. 27th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Weak recoveries, default risks still high Recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa will be weak, with the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – set to fare particularly badly. A rebound in tourism sectors has been... 22nd October 2020 · 22 mins read
UK Economics Update Negative interest rates – will they or won’t they? While we wouldn’t rule out negative interest rates being used a bit further down the line, over the next 6-12 months we think 10-year gilt yields will be kept close to 0.15% by the Bank of England... 20th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Record low inventory to weigh on home sales The main news this week was that home sales hit a record high in September. As inventory is at a record low, sales are set to moderate from here, but prices should keep rising. 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly NCB-Samba merger, Oman VAT, OPEC+ deal The merger between National Commercial Bank and Samba is the latest effort to consolidate the Saudi banking sector and, with the crisis likely to weigh on profitability, it may be a sign of things to... 15th October 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) Mortgage availability saw a modest improvement Q3, but not enough to reverse the large fall seen in Q2. Meanwhile, credit availability to commercial property fell sharply during the quarter, and... 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic... 15th October 2020 · 24 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Broad credit growth hit is highest level in nearly three years. We think this acceleration should continue until early next year. 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
