Iran deal, Gulf re-opening, Tunisia debt restructuring

If reports suggesting that the Iran nuclear deal will be revived (perhaps as soon as next week) prove right, the lifting of sanctions would probably weigh on oil prices as Iran ramps up production, but geopolitical tensions would ease further. Elsewhere, strong vaccine rollouts in the UAE, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have allowed governments to ease travel and tourism-related restrictions, but a robust rebound in these sectors is probably still some time away. And finally, despite the assertion by Tunisia’s Finance Minister Ali Kooli that the government would not need to restructure its debts, we think such an outcome is becoming increasingly likely.