US Economics Weekly Banking sector getting stronger Much attention has focused on the surge in European banking stocks since the ECB first announced its LTRO bank lending scheme. But over the same period, US banking stocks have also risen by 20%. And... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The broad money supply bounced back in January, suggesting that the extreme weakness at the end of last year was just temporary. But the underlying trend still looks too weak to support a sustained... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Capital inflows are a threat to Asia The return of global risk appetite has helped to push up asset prices across Asia. If we are correct that the crisis in the euro-zone will worsen again later this year, global risk appetite is likely... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The latest monetary data have revealed that the ECB’s generous lending is boosting the broad money supply. However, lending to firms and consumers remains very weak and the bank lending survey... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans are too long term After forcing yet more austerity on Greece in return for the new rescue package agreed last week, some European leaders finally appeared to adopt a more positive focus, by presenting “A Plan for... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How rapidly will China relax capital controls? China is slowly relaxing its capital controls but unfettered cross-border flows won’t be allowed until the currency floats and the financial sector has been overhauled. This could take a decade, but... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How would emerging Asia cope with a euro break-up? The major impact of euro-zone break-up on emerging Asia would come from the resulting weakness of export demand. If the break-up was relatively smooth and the US continued to grow, as we think is... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a second Portuguese bail-out involve PSI? Portugal has made some progress in reining in its huge budget deficit, but it appears inevitable that it will need another rescue package. While there is a good chance that any new deal will not be... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Even though our measure of M3 grew by a healthy 5.6% in the year to January, there are some signs that bank lending is starting to grow more slowly. The danger is that a sovereign debt default in the... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A Turkish soft landing still looks like a tall order Signs that Turkey’s current account deficit is narrowing, coupled with a marked improvement in global financing conditions, have raised hopes that it may be able to put its balance of payments on a... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Uncertain outlook overshadows improving output Recent survey evidence has pointed to a further pick-up in economic activity in January, but also highlighted the considerable uncertainty in the economic environment. The results of January’s Economy... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexican banks can weather the euro-zone storm The close links between Mexican banks and the euro-zone have raised fears that the break-up of the monetary union will trigger a banking crisis in Mexico. But while we would caution against dismissing... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austerity deal won’t mark a turning point for Greece Greek policymakers may soon agree on a new austerity and structural reform programme, reducing the chances of a disorderly default in March. Nonetheless, any deal is unlikely to prevent Greece’s... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The continued weakness of broad money and lending growth bolsters the case for the MPC to announce another round of quantitative easing (QE) at February’s meeting. 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Recent monetary data have revealed that the ECB’s generous lending has helped to reduce strains in interbank markets to some extent. However, money and credit growth have weakened further. 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) While the growth rate of the narrower M1 money aggregate has started to slow a little, M2 growth has remained broadly unchanged and the growth rate of our reconstructed measure of the broadest M3... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
