UK Economics Update Four reasons why gilt yields will stay low Gilt yields have fallen sharply since February, with 10-year yields now equal to the 50-year or so low of 2.75% that they reached in March 2009. But there are good reasons to think that gilt yields... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Earnings fall back even as hours rise Salaries in Japan fell unexpectedly in June, as mid-year bonuses and overtime pay was cut. But as hours worked increase and employment gradually picks up, it seems more workers are working longer for... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a US default mean for Asia? Policymakers across the region are rightly concerned about the potential consequences of a debt crisis in the US. We believe that the impact on Emerging Asia’s economies of a one or two notch... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Broad money and lending growth remained exceptionally weak in July, suggesting that nominal GDP growth is likely to ease back in time. The case for more quantitative easing is getting stronger. 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The latest ECB Bank lending survey suggests that conditions in the euro-zone banking sector remain far from normal, supporting our view that domestic demand in the region as a whole will struggle to... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Latin America wasting its commodities windfall? The fact that Latin America is spending its windfall from higher commodity prices is good news for the global economy, but carries significant risks for the region itself. In the near term the big... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The slight rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, to 59.5 in July from 57.6 in June, is a bit bizarre given that all the other measures of confidence have recently fallen... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What if the US defaults? We still think that the US government is unlikely to default on its debt. But if it did, the implications would potentially be far more serious than those that would follow a one or two notch... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth set to slow sharply Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to suspend its daily purchases of US$ should help to stabilise the lira in the very near term. But it does not tackle the underlying concern, namely... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) May's retail sales are another reminder of the negative effects that high energy and rising food prices are having on discretionary consumer spending. Despite the preliminary data showing strong... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling real pay taking its toll The continued squeeze on real pay suggests that consumer spending will keep falling for some time. Last week we revised down our forecast for GDP growth this year from 1.5% to 1% and now expect... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Jun.) The official measure of retail sales rebounded a bit in June, but the underlying trend remains broadly flat. Meanwhile, “Plan A” still seems to be struggling to deliver the planned falls in public... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How a banking crisis could sink the euro A loss of confidence in the banking system of a euro member country could potentially result in all of that country’s bank liabilities effectively ending up as the liabilities of the ECB. The sheer... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How exposed is the US to European debt defaults? The risk that the US government will default on some of its debt obligations lingered last week as the stand-off over the raising of the debt ceiling appeared to intensify. At the same time, it has... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would a US sovereign credit downgrade rattle Treasuries? Moody’s has become the second major rating agency to put the long-term credit rating of the US government on review for possible downgrade. We think investors in the Treasury market were right to... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What was behind the lending rebound? Last month’s lending rebound was driven by short-term credit and may have done more for asset markets than the economy. Medium and long-term lending increased by the least since 2008. 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
