US Economics Weekly Downside risks stem mainly from crippling debt In the last US Weekly of the year we want to flag up the main risks surrounding our new forecast that GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2011, before slowing to 2.0% in 2012. The main upside risk is that we are... 27th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q4 2010 China’s businesses have grown in confidence in the last quarter but banks and consumers are far less upbeat. Banks are increasingly worried about overheating and the need for policy tightening... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Negative Equity (Q3) The fall in the proportion of homeowners in negative equity in the third quarter offers little comfort since it was driven by foreclosures rather than a rise in prices. The second downward leg in... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Flow of Funds (Q3) The latest Flow of Funds accounts from the Fed show that the public sector is now accumulating debt at a faster pace than the private sector is paying it down. 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal's toughest tests still lie ahead The ECB’s announcement that it would step up its bond purchase programme and extend liquidity provision to the banking sector has eased immediate pressure on Portugal. But the initial positive market... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US banks’ exposure to Europe has fallen While the health of European banks is once again in question, the financial crisis is becoming a distant memory for US banks. So far this year, they have enjoyed a decent rise in net income. Moreover... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone crisis threatens UK export prospects Last week’s bailout for Ireland did little to ease concerns about the troubled euro-zone periphery. At least the UK banking sector’s exposure to the so-called “PIIGS” – Portugal, Ireland, Italy... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest money and credit figures show that annual lending growth is continuing to pick up. Nonetheless, with the periphery’s banks still in a vulnerable position, the ECB’s plan for a gradual... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey & Bank Lending (Oct.) Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) for October suggests that the recovery is faltering again in the fourth quarter after what we expect to have been strong (aboveconsensus) growth in GDP in the... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What lessons should China learn from Japan's lost decade? Today’s tensions between China and the US have many echoes of those between Japan and the US in the 1980s including, most clearly, over the exchange rate. The lesson for China is not, as some have... 8th November 2010 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update Capital flows into Asia set to bring stock market bubbles Capital inflows into Emerging Asia stock markets were high in October and will probably stay strong in coming months. This huge challenge will continue to be managed through the combination of more... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Broad money growth still looks very weak, with the pick-up seen earlier this year now looking like a statistical quirk. This supports the view of some MPC members, including Mervyn King, that a... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The latest euro-zone broad money and credit data provide further signs that the problems in the banking sector may be easing. Nonetheless, credit growth remains very weak and supports our view that... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still battling to achieve fiscal stability Last week was characterised by fairly downbeat news on economic activity and ongoing struggles to achieve fiscal goals. Although the German business surveys remained positive, October’s fall in the... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The annual rate of decline in our Capital Economics' measure of M3 continues to slow. (See Chart below.) There is a good chance that the widely expected second round of quantitative easing from the... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How should Brazil respond to capital inflows? The recent influx of foreign capital into Brazil is likely to be sustained over the coming months and quarters. But while this should ensure that the economy continues to grow at a decent pace, there... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
