Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE banks better placed to weather a fresh global crisis The UAE’s banks are better prepared to face the fallout of the euro-zone debt crisis than they were during the financial crisis of 2008. However, lending to the private sector is unlikely to return to... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Raising deposit rates is not enough to support the Egyptian pound The decision by privately-owned banks in Egypt to raise deposit rates by around two percentage points may slow the rate of dollarization of resident accounts, which could help the central bank in its... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The growth rate of money has levelled out over the past couple of months, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year. 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending and Broad Money (Oct.) Today’s data show that net new lending rebounded last month, while growth in broad money fell slightly. We expect credit controls to be eased officially soon and therefore see lending picking up... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Banking sector risks revisited Fears are mounting over the exposure of Emerging Europe’s banks to the deepening crisis in the euro-zone. Our view remains unchanged from that which we put forward earlier this year: the big risk to... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Growing stresses in the banking system This week’s surge in Italian government bond yields has catapulted the euro-zone debt crisis into a dangerous new phase. Italy’s problems pose a far greater threat to the region’s banks than those of... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: living on borrowed time We estimate that the Central Bank of Egypt has sufficient FX reserves to maintain its current rate of intervention in the foreign exchange markets until early next year. Assuming this month’s... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek referendum throws whole rescue plan into doubt The Greek government’s surprise decision to hold a referendum on the latest euro-zone rescue package has clearly increased the risks of a bigger and disorderly default on Greek debt and, ultimately... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The pronounced weakness of the latest broad money and lending data suggests that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was right to restart QE in October. However, the MPC seems to be getting less ‘bang... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How vulnerable is Asia to another financial crisis? Despite the deal agreed by European leaders last week, we are far from sanguine about prospects for the euro-zone and expect further turmoil in global financial markets. In the event of another... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The latest monetary data suggest that stresses in the banking sector are growing. With the new bank recapitalisation plans unlikely to restore stability to the banking sector, we expect credit... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone plans more peashooter than bazooka The plans announced by euro-zone policymakers overnight look more like a peashooter than the “bazooka” previously promised to tackle the region’s problems. We have not altered our view that the crisis... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How healthy is Brazil's fiscal position? The Brazilian public finances have improved beyond measure following the various debt crises of the 1980s. But government debt remains high by regional standards, and could rise further, perhaps to as... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How damaging will a Greek default be? The immediate fall-out from a Greek default should be manageable and much less damaging than that which followed the collapse of Lehmans, even if it does count as a “credit event”. However, this... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does a sovereign debt crisis always cause a financial crisis? While there are no direct historical parallels with the current situation in Europe, a review of past experience suggests policymakers may need to resolve the euro-zone’s sovereign debt crisis... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune? Emerging markets are not immune from the deepening debt crisis in the developed world, but most are well-placed to deal with the fallout. China faces a difficult structural transition of its own but... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
