Europe Economics Update Spanish bank plans unlikely to be a game changer News that the Spanish Government will force the troubled banks to boost their capital ratios is an encouraging sign that it is trying to tackle the economy’s fundamental problems. But we doubt that... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Banking recovery continues despite familiar risks The good news is that the region’s banking sector is starting to find its feet. The bad news is that familiar vulnerabilities remain in those countries that were hit hardest during the global crisis... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit risks are growing, but banking sector still strong Latin America’s financial system is still in good shape, especially when compared to that of the developed world. Nevertheless, lending has accelerated throughout the region and default rates, notably... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) suggests that the recovery may have regained some momentum in December, but the outlook component is still weaker than current conditions and both are well below the... 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS Report on Services (Dec.) & Credit Conditions (Q4) December’s CIPS/Markit report on services suggested that the economy ended 2010 on a much weaker note than the recent upbeat industrial data had indicated. What’s more, the Bank of England’s latest... 6th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Downside risks stem mainly from crippling debt In the last US Weekly of the year we want to flag up the main risks surrounding our new forecast that GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2011, before slowing to 2.0% in 2012. The main upside risk is that we are... 27th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q4 2010 China’s businesses have grown in confidence in the last quarter but banks and consumers are far less upbeat. Banks are increasingly worried about overheating and the need for policy tightening... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Negative Equity (Q3) The fall in the proportion of homeowners in negative equity in the third quarter offers little comfort since it was driven by foreclosures rather than a rise in prices. The second downward leg in... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Flow of Funds (Q3) The latest Flow of Funds accounts from the Fed show that the public sector is now accumulating debt at a faster pace than the private sector is paying it down. 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal's toughest tests still lie ahead The ECB’s announcement that it would step up its bond purchase programme and extend liquidity provision to the banking sector has eased immediate pressure on Portugal. But the initial positive market... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US banks’ exposure to Europe has fallen While the health of European banks is once again in question, the financial crisis is becoming a distant memory for US banks. So far this year, they have enjoyed a decent rise in net income. Moreover... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone crisis threatens UK export prospects Last week’s bailout for Ireland did little to ease concerns about the troubled euro-zone periphery. At least the UK banking sector’s exposure to the so-called “PIIGS” – Portugal, Ireland, Italy... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest money and credit figures show that annual lending growth is continuing to pick up. Nonetheless, with the periphery’s banks still in a vulnerable position, the ECB’s plan for a gradual... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey & Bank Lending (Oct.) Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) for October suggests that the recovery is faltering again in the fourth quarter after what we expect to have been strong (aboveconsensus) growth in GDP in the... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What lessons should China learn from Japan's lost decade? Today’s tensions between China and the US have many echoes of those between Japan and the US in the 1980s including, most clearly, over the exchange rate. The lesson for China is not, as some have... 8th November 2010 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update Capital flows into Asia set to bring stock market bubbles Capital inflows into Emerging Asia stock markets were high in October and will probably stay strong in coming months. This huge challenge will continue to be managed through the combination of more... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
