US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The rapid pace of money growth continued in September. To some extent the recent pick up reflects a jump in the precautionary demand for money, however, so it is not necessarily inflationary. 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro survive the sovereign debt crisis? Policymakers’ latest plans to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis are unlikely to address the region’s fundamental problems and secure the future of the single currency. We still doubt that the euro will... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Lending continuing to recover Bank lending fell again in September in year-on-year terms, but at its slowest rate in almost two years. Lending has already bottomed out on a month-on-month basis and the annual rate of change is set... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe's external financing risks still high The view that Emerging Europe is not as vulnerable to an external financing crisis as in 2008/09 appears misplaced. Although current account deficits have, in most cases, narrowed sharply, total... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary FX debt plan amounts to backdoor default Fresh concerns over the health of the Hungarian banking system have risen following the government’s policy to allow households to repay FX mortgages at preferential exchange rates. Our best estimate... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we any closer to a Tobin tax? The widespread adoption of new Tobin-style levies on financial transactions remains unlikely, despite the latest endorsement from EC President Barroso today. Nonetheless, there is growing... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Despite renewed hopes that euro-zone policymakers will adopt radical measures to solve the region’s debt crisis, we expect stresses in the banking sector to remain, increasing the chances of the... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Sep.) & Public finances (Aug.) The minutes of September’s MPC meeting strongly suggested that QE2 will be launched soon, while August’s public finances threw more doubt on the fiscal plans. 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s second bail-out dead and buried? On the face of it, the recent fall in Greek sovereign CDS premia and press reports suggesting that Greece will receive the fourth tranche of loans from its bail-out package in March are encouraging... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deepening debt crisis points to new recession The debt crisis in the euro-zone has escalated rapidly over recent months and could now come to a head sooner than we had previously anticipated. This is likely to have severe near- to medium-term... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling points to troubles ahead Today’s ruling by the German Constitutional Court that bail-outs already undertaken by EU authorities were not unlawful might come as a relief to highly indebted euro-zone governments. But its... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece at risk of an imminent default? In the near term, Greece may continue to receive EU/IMF support and grudgingly meet the terms of its bail-out, despite the ongoing problems surrounding the second rescue package. But it is virtually... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Monetary indicators continue to suggest that underlying inflationary pressures are pretty weak. Meanwhile, firms have continued to pay down their debts, suggesting that business investment is unlikely... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June's rebound in retail sales was driven by sharply higher auto sales, thanks to earlier-than-normal and more generous price incentives. Since then, however, auto sales have fallen back and other... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will retail spending prove resilient again? One puzzle during the recent recession was the way in which retail sales held up so well relative to overall consumer spending. But we find it hard to justify why retail should continue to prove this... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending and Broad Money (July) Today’s data show that both net new lending and growth in broad money fell last month. These figures provide further support for our view that the balance of concerns in China is soon likely to shift... 13th August 2011 · 1 min read
