Japan Data Response Economy Watchers' Survey (Mar.) Today’s retail sales and unemployment data for February were better than expected and small business confidence was high in early March. These figures pre-date the full impact of the earthquake that... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banks a heavy weight around Ireland's neck The results of the latest round of Irish bank stress tests will almost undoubtedly make pretty grim reading and we doubt that they will draw a line under the banking crisis. Accordingly, concerns... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions (Q1), Cons. Conf. (Mar.), Pay settlements (Feb.) The Bank of England’s latest survey suggested that credit conditions remain pretty tight, suggesting that a significant pick-up in bank lending still looks unlikely any time soon. Meanwhile, there was... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest euro-zone money and credit data confirm that underlying inflationary pressures remain reasonably subdued. While the ECB appears intent on raising interest rates next month, the money data... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New European bank stress tests still not stressful enough Details on the methodology and assumptions behind this year’s European bank stress tests provide little hope that the results will significantly ease concerns about the region’s banks. This supports... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece still facing a funding crisis? Recent financial market developments suggest that Greece is as far away as ever from convincing investors that it can get its public finances on a stable footing without defaulting. What’s more, there... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The current conditions component of February's Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) was even more upbeat than the improvement signalled by the outlook in the previous month. However, the forward-looking... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A strong recovery needs faster money growth The Monetary Policy Committee has suggested that nominal GDP growth can be sustained even if money growth remains weak. This might happen to some extent. But the big picture is that money growth at... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Funding problems to keep lid on bank lending The Chancellor is upping the pressure on banks to lend more. But with banks’ funding problems really coming home to roost this year, he might soon feel like he is banging his head against a brick wall... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update January loan surge tests new credit policy January’s consumer price inflation figures will be the most closely-watched of China’s upcoming batch of data. But the lending data will also be worth a look for what they tell us about the government... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Project Merlin no magic fix for bank lending We doubt that the lending commitments announced as part of today’s “Project Merlin” will lead to a significant pick-up in bank lending growth. 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank debt plans won’t solve Ireland’s fiscal problems Speculation is growing that the next Irish Government will attempt to restructure some of the nationalised banks’ senior debt. But such a move, while no doubt popular with taxpayers, would do little... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Project Merlin no magic fix for bank lending We doubt that the lending commitments announced as part of today’s “Project Merlin” will lead to a significant pick-up in bank lending growth. 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jan.) The decline in the current conditions component of the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in January suggests that activity remained weak at the start of the first quarter after the likely contraction in... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Downgrade not catastrophic but fiscal crisis looms S&P’s decision to downgrade Japan’s sovereign credit rating one notch (to AA-) today may not be a big deal in itself, but it supports our fears that 2011 will be the year when Japan’s dire fiscal... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the Emerald Isle ever regain its sparkle? The recent bail-out and banking support measures may have pulled Ireland back from the brink of imminent disaster. But the economy and the public finances remain in an extremely precarious position... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
