Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s current account deficit not just about oil The recent spike in oil prices will make it harder for Turkey to rein in its current account deficit. But there is more to Turkey’s current account shortfall than simply the high cost of energy... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK banks still heavily exposed to the euro-zone Today’s Bank of England figures showed that UK banks further reduced their exposures to European countries in the final quarter of last year. Nonetheless, the euro-zone debt crisis continues to pose a... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone problems The growing imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system are another indication of the huge underlying problems still facing the currency union. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012 Preview The Chancellor’s resolve to stick to his austerity plans appears to be as strong as ever. We expect another fiscally neutral Budget, with flagship measures such as another rise in the personal tax... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates cut in Vietnam to help struggling banking sector The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) today announced that it would be reducing its key policy rate “over the next few days”. The cut comes after sharp falls in inflation over the past six months and is... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Greek debt deal go through? A high participation rate in the Greek debt exchange would reduce the chances of an imminent disorderly default. But even if all bondholders take part, Greece’s public debt burden will remain... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Banking sector getting stronger Much attention has focused on the surge in European banking stocks since the ECB first announced its LTRO bank lending scheme. But over the same period, US banking stocks have also risen by 20%. And... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The broad money supply bounced back in January, suggesting that the extreme weakness at the end of last year was just temporary. But the underlying trend still looks too weak to support a sustained... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Capital inflows are a threat to Asia The return of global risk appetite has helped to push up asset prices across Asia. If we are correct that the crisis in the euro-zone will worsen again later this year, global risk appetite is likely... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The latest monetary data have revealed that the ECB’s generous lending is boosting the broad money supply. However, lending to firms and consumers remains very weak and the bank lending survey... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans are too long term After forcing yet more austerity on Greece in return for the new rescue package agreed last week, some European leaders finally appeared to adopt a more positive focus, by presenting “A Plan for... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How rapidly will China relax capital controls? China is slowly relaxing its capital controls but unfettered cross-border flows won’t be allowed until the currency floats and the financial sector has been overhauled. This could take a decade, but... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How would emerging Asia cope with a euro break-up? The major impact of euro-zone break-up on emerging Asia would come from the resulting weakness of export demand. If the break-up was relatively smooth and the US continued to grow, as we think is... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a second Portuguese bail-out involve PSI? Portugal has made some progress in reining in its huge budget deficit, but it appears inevitable that it will need another rescue package. While there is a good chance that any new deal will not be... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Even though our measure of M3 grew by a healthy 5.6% in the year to January, there are some signs that bank lending is starting to grow more slowly. The danger is that a sovereign debt default in the... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A Turkish soft landing still looks like a tall order Signs that Turkey’s current account deficit is narrowing, coupled with a marked improvement in global financing conditions, have raised hopes that it may be able to put its balance of payments on a... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
