Europe Economics Update Spanish bail-out will leave little in the pot A Spanish sovereign bail-out would leave little left in the pot to provide further assistance to Portugal and Ireland and, much more crucially, to deal with serious problems in Italy. 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further rate cut looks likely A further interest rate cut is looking increasing likely. We have pencilled in a 25bps reduction in November, taking official rates to 0.25%. And it is possible that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece about to move back into the spotlight? The formation of a ‘pro bail-out’ government may have recently shifted the markets’ spotlight away from Greece. But the Troika’s visit to Athens, which begins tomorrow, looks set to prompt renewed... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Jubilee boost short-lived Although consumer spending appears to have boosted at the start of June by the extended bank holiday, the fillip did not last for long and the underlying trend in spending still looks pretty mediocre... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Price pressures have eased across the Middle East Inflation pressures are easing in most countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. The drop in global commodity prices has led to a fall in food price inflation across the region. Meanwhile... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Loan demand rises in response to government policy According to the Bank of Japan’s Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS), there was a large divergence in loan demand in Q2. Household demand picked-up but business demand dropped. Rising household... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery on hold as economy continues to slow The Japanese economy continued to slow throughout the second quarter and businesses expect only an anaemic recovery in Q3. The economy remains reliant on government support, with reconstruction... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market health belies talk of hard landing China’s economy is growing at one of the slowest rates in years but the labour market is showing few signs of strain. Migrant wages were up 13% y/y last quarter. There are still more jobs being... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone drags down global recovery The euro-zone crisis is taking its toll on the rest of the world. Activity slowed in all major economies in the second quarter, including the US, China and Japan. We expect growth to pick up in the US... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed could launch its own "funding for lending" scheme Joining the dots, it is becoming clear that the Fed, and its Chairman Ben Bernanke in particular, are considering launching a US version of the Bank of England's new Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS)... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How would a euro-zone break-up affect Japan? If the euro-zone suffers from some form of break-up, as we expect, Japan could feel the effects through three channels: its trade links with the region, the exposure of its banking system and the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The various monetary aggregates show broad money growth is both strong and stable which, at the margin, makes a third round of quantitative easing look less warranted. In contrast, our own M3 measure... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Don’t get carried away by talk of rate cuts At first glance, it looks like the tide is turning towards looser monetary policy in Emerging Europe. But while there may be one or two rate cuts over the coming month, we wouldn’t get carried away... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is lending to households set to increase? There are some reasons to hope that households should soon find it a bit easier and cheaper to borrow. But whether households will want to borrow more is another matter. 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The recent slowdown in broad money growth appears to have levelled off as bank lending has started to rise. Lending appears to be being driven by households as corporate borrowing has declined despite... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Lending set to fuel investment-led rebound in short-term Today’s strong lending data cast last week’s rate cut in a new light. Policy is being eased further even though earlier stimulus measures had already started to take effect. That suggests the... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
