China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Consumer price inflation tumbled to near 2% y/y in June, we believe. With the government pushing up electricity prices for heavy residential users starting this week, the headline rate may not get... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) Unsecured consumer credit growth has picked up, although we think that this could be an indication of consumer weakness rather than strength. There are still few signs of a more widespread recovery in... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary data confirm that the ECB’s earlier liquidity measures are not yet having the desired effect. While money supply growth is picking up, bank lending to the private sector remains... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts (Q1) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The economy is still estimated to have contracted at the start of the year and it is probably still in recession now. We continue to expect GDP to shrink by 0.5% this year and expand only modestly... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would leaving the EU damage the UK economy? A referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU seems to be becoming a more realistic prospect. We think that concerns about the economic disruption if the UK were to leave are overdone. In fact, the... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household borrowing near full throttle Household borrowing has accelerated over the last few quarters, a trend that might continue to push the debt-to-income ratio higher. However, the faltering global economic recovery and drop back in... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Policymakers step up a gear UK policymakers last night announced that they are significantly stepping up their efforts to try to cushion the UK economy from the effects of the euro-zone crisis. The measures should help to ease... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Today we are launching a new monthly publication on the Japan service, the Monetary Indicators Monitor. The recent levelling out in the monetary base has been cited by many commentators as evidence... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Today we are launching a new monthly publication on the Japan service, the Monetary Indicators Monitor. The recent levelling out in the monetary base has been cited by many commentators as evidence... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking union is only part of the answer Talk of an EU banking union provides some hope that policymakers are starting to address one of the potential triggers for a euro-zone break-up. But the prospect of a full-blown banking union seems as... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Too soon to sound the all-clear on Colombian credit growth While overall credit growth in Colombia is slowing, consumer lending remains uncomfortably strong. The deepening crisis in Europe will probably prevent policymakers from raising rates over the next... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Banks respond to stimulus call as economy stabilises The May data brought evidence that conditions in China’s economy stopped deteriorating last month and may have moderately improved. With its banks now pumping out loans to willing state-owned... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain will need more help Spain’s banking bail-out may help to pull the country away from the centre of the euro-zone storm for a while. But we doubt that it is the only support that the country will need. 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What might a bail-out for Spain look like? Events are moving fast in Spain. After denials from Spanish government officials in recent months about the need for a bail-out, external assistance now seems inevitable with EU officials reported to... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another shot at TARGET2 While some of the concerns over TARGET2 imbalances might be over-done, they are nonetheless a reminder of the depth of the economic and financial problems facing the currency union. 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
