UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) April’s household borrowing figures painted a weak picture, suggesting that lending growth is still too weak to foster a sustainable recovery in consumer spending. 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can the US monetary data explain the price of gold? The relationship between the dollar price of gold and the size of the US monetary base is not as robust as often assumed. Prior to the global financial crisis there was barely any relationship at all... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The latest monetary data confirm that the ECB’s generous liquidity measures are not prompting banks to lend more to the rest of the economy. 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) With money growth still very weak, we continue to think that another extension of quantitative easing is very close. 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are historical monetary break-ups relevant to the euro-zone? The break-up of the euro-zone would be an unprecedented event because the euro itself is unique. But there are still some useful lessons to be learnt from previous monetary splits. 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The annual growth rate of our re-constructed measure of M3 eased slightly to 5.2% y/y in April, from 5.9% but, with M1 and M2 still growing at much faster rates, we see no cause for alarm. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spanish banking links revisited The direct exposure of Latin American banks to the deepening crisis in Spain is not as great as it seems at first sight. Even so, there are at least three ways in which the region’s banks could be hit... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will falling bank deposits force Greece out? The recent rapid decline in Greek bank deposits underlines our warnings that it could be pressures on the banking system which provide the primary trigger for some form of euro-zone break-up. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Required reserve ratio cut not enough to trigger rebound This weekend’s policy move by the People’s Bank is likely to be the precursor to a more explicitly pro-growth stance from China’s government. April’s awful data suggest that officials so far this year... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank bond purchases could deepen the crisis Banks’ purchases of sovereign debt have helped to lower some euro-zone governments’ borrowing costs. But they cannot solve the broader debt crisis and may even deepen it by further increasing the... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Overall broad money growth remains extraordinarily weak. The MPC’s preferred measure of M4 is stronger, but the monetary indicators as a whole point to the need for further quantitative easing. 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) Peripheral euro-zone economies continue to struggle to make further inroads into their budget deficits. Although this partly reflects temporary factors, the deteriorating growth outlook suggests that... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest monetary data revealed a further pick-up in broad money supply growth following generous ECB lending. But while banks seem to be using some of the money to buy government bonds, they are... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia’s credit boom is unsustainable The Colombian credit boom appears to be unsustainable. Lending growth has been excessive, while new loans have been increasingly funded via wholesale foreign funding. We expect tighter macroeconomic... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Debt concerns still dominating the Riksbank’s thoughts The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.0% was no surprise given the recent run of encouraging economic data. But while the chances of an imminent cut have perhaps... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone crisis still the big risk for region’s banks Our latest Banking Heat Map paints a mixed picture: in some countries (notably Hungary and the Baltic States) credit continues to shrink, in others (Turkey) a boom in lending over the past year or so... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
