US Economics Update US Banks continue to strengthen balance sheets According to the latest data from the FDIC, US banks continued to benefit from shrinking loan losses in the second quarter, which allowed them to maintain a high capital ratio even as they expanded... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The latest monetary data confirm that the ECB’s earlier liquidity operations have yet to boost lending to the private sector, which will add to the pressure on the Bank to do more. As well as buying... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal dilemma intensifies Last week brought more bad news for the Chancellor. The public sector ran a deficit in July, a month when a surplus is typically the norm. Admittedly, some temporary factors contributed to July’s poor... 27th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The annual growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates have slowed a little, but our own measure of M3, the broadest aggregate, is still growing at an annual rate of 4.5%. 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The acceleration in the monetary base is not feeding through to broader money growth as demand for credit, particularly from businesses, is weakening. 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Are student loans the next bubble? The near-quadrupling in student loan debt over the past decade to $900bn, or 6% of GDP, is a concern, but we don't believe it represents a serious threat to the US financial system or that it will... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital outflows still under control Fears about capital leaving China are overdone. Recent pressure on the People’s Bank to sell foreign exchange appears to be the result of greater willingness among Chinese firms to hold on to their... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What more can central banks do? Many commentators argue that central banks in advanced economies have all but run out of ammunition. We disagree. Admittedly, the room for further conventional policy stimulus is fairly limited, but... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation back on investors’ agenda Today’s data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) showing that foreign currency reserves fell in July serve as a reminder that devaluation of the pound remains a real and likely prospect. 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed will want to satisfy surging mortgage demand The surge in demand for residential mortgages reported by the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey could further encourage the FOMC to launch QE3, and perhaps some kind of Funding for Lending... 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Real pay finally to start rising Real pay is finally about to start rising again. But the need for households to repair their balance sheets will keep the recovery in consumer spending modest. 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul. 12) Broad money and lending growth plumbed new lows in June, supporting our subdued forecasts for both inflation and economic growth. 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s household borrowing figures seem to have been depressed by a series of temporary factors. Nonetheless, there are also signs that both the underlying supply of and demand for credit is fading. 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Massive revision needed to alter the big picture Last week’s surprisingly poor GDP figures once again called into question the reliability of the data. But the weakness is consistent with the low level of construction orders and the slowdown in the... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fears about impact of downgrade overdone The news that the economy contracted for a third successive quarter has led to renewed warnings that the UK will lose its AAA credit rating. We have long been of the view that the weakness of the... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update An end to renminbi appreciation? The renminbi’s rise against the dollar stalled at the beginning of 2012 and the currency has fallen back in the last few weeks. The scale of depreciation to date is small – little more than 1% since... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
