Japan Economics Update Loan demand rises in response to government policy According to the Bank of Japan’s Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS), there was a large divergence in loan demand in Q2. Household demand picked-up but business demand dropped. Rising household... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery on hold as economy continues to slow The Japanese economy continued to slow throughout the second quarter and businesses expect only an anaemic recovery in Q3. The economy remains reliant on government support, with reconstruction... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market health belies talk of hard landing China’s economy is growing at one of the slowest rates in years but the labour market is showing few signs of strain. Migrant wages were up 13% y/y last quarter. There are still more jobs being... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone drags down global recovery The euro-zone crisis is taking its toll on the rest of the world. Activity slowed in all major economies in the second quarter, including the US, China and Japan. We expect growth to pick up in the US... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed could launch its own "funding for lending" scheme Joining the dots, it is becoming clear that the Fed, and its Chairman Ben Bernanke in particular, are considering launching a US version of the Bank of England's new Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS)... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How would a euro-zone break-up affect Japan? If the euro-zone suffers from some form of break-up, as we expect, Japan could feel the effects through three channels: its trade links with the region, the exposure of its banking system and the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The various monetary aggregates show broad money growth is both strong and stable which, at the margin, makes a third round of quantitative easing look less warranted. In contrast, our own M3 measure... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Don’t get carried away by talk of rate cuts At first glance, it looks like the tide is turning towards looser monetary policy in Emerging Europe. But while there may be one or two rate cuts over the coming month, we wouldn’t get carried away... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is lending to households set to increase? There are some reasons to hope that households should soon find it a bit easier and cheaper to borrow. But whether households will want to borrow more is another matter. 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The recent slowdown in broad money growth appears to have levelled off as bank lending has started to rise. Lending appears to be being driven by households as corporate borrowing has declined despite... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Lending set to fuel investment-led rebound in short-term Today’s strong lending data cast last week’s rate cut in a new light. Policy is being eased further even though earlier stimulus measures had already started to take effect. That suggests the... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Little respite in sight for the euro The euro’s slide against the dollar is unlikely to end any time soon. Admittedly, the exchange rate is already at a two year low. But an escalation of the euro-zone crisis and a deep recession should... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun. 12) While another fall in mortgage rates saw remortgaging applications surge higher in June as a whole, applications for home purchase remained stuck in the doldrums. Nevertheless, this isn’t preventing a... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Tight credit conditions will weigh on activity There was nothing in the past month’s data to change our view that the UK housing market will experience a long, drawn-out correction over the next few years. But with few signs that the euro-zone... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s looming credit crunch The current pace of credit growth in Brazil remains unsustainable – and the longer it continues, the bigger the risk of a messy ending further down the line. 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Housing Equity Withdrawal (Q1) The low level of housing equity withdrawal is an indication of how the subdued housing market may be limiting households’ ability and willingness to spend. 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
