Europe Economics Update Banks still reducing their exposures to the periphery The core euro-zone banks continued to reduce their claims on the region’s peripheral economies in Q2. And despite recent hopes that the worst of the euro-zone debt crisis may now be over, we expect... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks cut their exposure to German banks New figures show that US banks have not just continued to reduce their exposure to those euro-zone nations most in trouble, but they have also started to trim their exposure to German banks. This... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports point to continued weakness at end-Q3 The September import data suggest China’s economy was still weak at the end of Q3. By contrast, last month’s exports were unexpectedly strong, as they were for both Korea and Taiwan, with demand from... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending and total social financing (Sep.) Unexpectedly weak bank lending in September was offset by strong growth in other forms of credit. But credit overall is not growing at a speed likely to fuel a significant economic rebound. 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Parent bank deleveraging rumbles on The latest data suggest that parent banks in Western Europe have continued to scale back funding to subsidiaries in the east, with those in Hungary hit disproportionally hard. 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia's credit growth a cause for concern? Russia stands out as the only economy in Emerging Europe currently experiencing rapid credit growth. In fact, the Central Bank is starting to worry about the risks of a credit bubble developing. We... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Bank deleveraging behind the slump in financial flows While the net external financial surplus, which offsets the current account deficit, has remained broadly unchanged at around 3% of GDP over the past few years, the separate financial inflows and... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) The latest household borrowing indicators are similar in tone to last week’s national accounts in suggesting that weak borrowing growth is holding back any recovery in consumer spending. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is Indonesia overheating? Rapid economic growth, coupled with strong credit expansion and a worsening current account have led to fears among some commentators that Indonesia’s economy is overheating, and that the central bank... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.12) On the face of it, the pick-up in the MPC’s preferred measure of broad money growth supports the Committee’s view that its asset purchases are still having a significant impact on the economy. But... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan consistent with GDP contraction Today’s weak Tankan survey supports our long-held view that Japan’s economy will have contracted in the third quarter. What’s more, a further contraction in Q4 looks increasingly likely. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The latest monetary data provide no encouragement about the outlook for the eurozone. Lending to the private sector has continued to fall and the boost to banks’ lending to governments generated by... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) The Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions Survey suggested that lenders expect the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) to boost the availability of credit to households. However, the picture... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican credit growth to support outperformance In contrast to much of Latin America, which has undergone a credit-fuelled boom in recent years, bank lending in Mexico has been more restrained. As a result, while many countries in the region are... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Businesses are not hoarding more cash It is encouraging that, faced with the prospect of the US economy hitting the fiscal cliff at the end of the year, businesses have not started to hoard more cash. At the same time, though, there is... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update QE3 may dwarf other central bank policies The sheer size of the Fed’s QE3 policy becomes even more apparent when it is compared to the policies of other central banks. Although we doubt that QE3 will set the US economy alight, the greater... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
