Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) Peripheral euro-zone economies continue to struggle to make further inroads into their budget deficits. Although this partly reflects temporary factors, the deteriorating growth outlook suggests that... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest monetary data revealed a further pick-up in broad money supply growth following generous ECB lending. But while banks seem to be using some of the money to buy government bonds, they are... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia’s credit boom is unsustainable The Colombian credit boom appears to be unsustainable. Lending growth has been excessive, while new loans have been increasingly funded via wholesale foreign funding. We expect tighter macroeconomic... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Debt concerns still dominating the Riksbank’s thoughts The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.0% was no surprise given the recent run of encouraging economic data. But while the chances of an imminent cut have perhaps... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone crisis still the big risk for region’s banks Our latest Banking Heat Map paints a mixed picture: in some countries (notably Hungary and the Baltic States) credit continues to shrink, in others (Turkey) a boom in lending over the past year or so... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The annual growth rates of the broad monetary aggregates slowed only marginally in March, with the growth rate of our measure of M3 easing from 6.1% to a still very healthy 5.8% last month. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth still uncomfortably strong The recent slowdown in Brazilian bank lending highlights the unsustainable nature of rapid credit growth in parts of Latin America. Credit risks are greatest in Argentina and Venezuela, while the... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policy easing starting to have an impact Much stronger-than-expected lending in March adds to the likelihood that tomorrow’s Q4 GDP figures will be reassuringly strong and signals that policy easing is starting to have an effect. Meanwhile... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Are Australian banks vulnerable to a global financial crisis? Australia stands out as one of the economies in Asia that might be most vulnerable to a renewed global banking crisis. Its high external debt and current account deficit make it reliant on foreign... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The annual growth rates of all the monetary aggregates remained strong in February, with our measure of the broadest M3 aggregate increasing by 6.0% over the past year. With the euro-zone crisis... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s current account deficit not just about oil The recent spike in oil prices will make it harder for Turkey to rein in its current account deficit. But there is more to Turkey’s current account shortfall than simply the high cost of energy... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK banks still heavily exposed to the euro-zone Today’s Bank of England figures showed that UK banks further reduced their exposures to European countries in the final quarter of last year. Nonetheless, the euro-zone debt crisis continues to pose a... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone problems The growing imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system are another indication of the huge underlying problems still facing the currency union. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012 Preview The Chancellor’s resolve to stick to his austerity plans appears to be as strong as ever. We expect another fiscally neutral Budget, with flagship measures such as another rise in the personal tax... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates cut in Vietnam to help struggling banking sector The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) today announced that it would be reducing its key policy rate “over the next few days”. The cut comes after sharp falls in inflation over the past six months and is... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Greek debt deal go through? A high participation rate in the Greek debt exchange would reduce the chances of an imminent disorderly default. But even if all bondholders take part, Greece’s public debt burden will remain... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
