Global Markets Update Little respite in sight for the euro The euro’s slide against the dollar is unlikely to end any time soon. Admittedly, the exchange rate is already at a two year low. But an escalation of the euro-zone crisis and a deep recession should... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun. 12) While another fall in mortgage rates saw remortgaging applications surge higher in June as a whole, applications for home purchase remained stuck in the doldrums. Nevertheless, this isn’t preventing a... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Tight credit conditions will weigh on activity There was nothing in the past month’s data to change our view that the UK housing market will experience a long, drawn-out correction over the next few years. But with few signs that the euro-zone... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s looming credit crunch The current pace of credit growth in Brazil remains unsustainable – and the longer it continues, the bigger the risk of a messy ending further down the line. 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Housing Equity Withdrawal (Q1) The low level of housing equity withdrawal is an indication of how the subdued housing market may be limiting households’ ability and willingness to spend. 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Consumer price inflation tumbled to near 2% y/y in June, we believe. With the government pushing up electricity prices for heavy residential users starting this week, the headline rate may not get... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) Unsecured consumer credit growth has picked up, although we think that this could be an indication of consumer weakness rather than strength. There are still few signs of a more widespread recovery in... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary data confirm that the ECB’s earlier liquidity measures are not yet having the desired effect. While money supply growth is picking up, bank lending to the private sector remains... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts (Q1) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The economy is still estimated to have contracted at the start of the year and it is probably still in recession now. We continue to expect GDP to shrink by 0.5% this year and expand only modestly... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would leaving the EU damage the UK economy? A referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU seems to be becoming a more realistic prospect. We think that concerns about the economic disruption if the UK were to leave are overdone. In fact, the... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household borrowing near full throttle Household borrowing has accelerated over the last few quarters, a trend that might continue to push the debt-to-income ratio higher. However, the faltering global economic recovery and drop back in... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Policymakers step up a gear UK policymakers last night announced that they are significantly stepping up their efforts to try to cushion the UK economy from the effects of the euro-zone crisis. The measures should help to ease... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Today we are launching a new monthly publication on the Japan service, the Monetary Indicators Monitor. The recent levelling out in the monetary base has been cited by many commentators as evidence... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Today we are launching a new monthly publication on the Japan service, the Monetary Indicators Monitor. The recent levelling out in the monetary base has been cited by many commentators as evidence... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking union is only part of the answer Talk of an EU banking union provides some hope that policymakers are starting to address one of the potential triggers for a euro-zone break-up. But the prospect of a full-blown banking union seems as... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
