Global Economics Update Monetary expansion continues Our measure of the aggregate monetary base in advanced economies has expanded rapidly during the past few months as both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have pressed on with their asset... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest broad money supply figures support signs that the economic recovery has remained strong in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, bank lending has begun to show some tentative signs of improvement... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s credit binge will have painful consequences Credit in Brazil has expanded to such an extent over the past decade that it now poses a serious risk to financial stability. The tightening of monetary policy over the past six months should help to... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Oct.13) Net commercial property lending was negative again in October but, to us, the end of the deleveraging process now seems to be coming into sight. 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A second bail-out still looms for Portugal Portugal is unlikely to follow in Ireland’s footsteps and achieve a “clean exit” from its existing rescue package. We think that the most likely scenario is that Portugal seeks a second full-blown... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) There remains little sign that a pick-up in euro-zone bank lending to help support the fragile economic recovery is taking place. 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Risks from rapid Saudi credit growth look manageable The rapid expansion of credit in Saudi Arabia is beginning to look like a cause for concern. If sustained, it could be followed by a rise in non-performing loans. Nonetheless, the country seems well... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM exporters benefit from Chinese rebound EM exporters appear to have benefited from the recent investment-led rebound in China. But with China's infrastructure spending now easing again and policymakers determined to rein in credit growth... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The annual growth rate of our M3* measure of broad money remained at just under 6% in October. In contrast, the growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 aggregates continue to trend lower. 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) While the money supply grew at the fastest pace since the late 1990s in October, bank lending has decelerated slightly. But record low interest rates and easy lending standards should provide further... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Money Supply & Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The slump in consumer confidence in October shows that households feel uncomfortable with the combination of rising prices and falling incomes. Meanwhile, the money supply grew at its fastest pace... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update State sector pulls back With output growth stable and inflation contained, October’s data signalled two key developments: a pull back in investment by the state sector, particularly in infrastructure, and a slowdown in... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank funding carrying more risks We’ve voiced concern about the pace of credit growth in a number of EMs. Worryingly, the composition of banks’ funding appears to have deteriorated at the same time, most notably in Turkey, but also... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Encouraging start to the fourth quarter Global growth appears to have accelerated in October, as suggested by the rise in business surveys to their highest levels since early 2011. After accelerating in Q3, the US economy seems to have... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a problem is local government debt? China’s local governments have taken on unhealthy amounts of debt over the last few years but, unlike many, we do not think this should rank among policymakers’ primary concerns. Instead, we would... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack ECB likely to soften stance but refrain from action The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to a four year low of 0.7% has raised the prospect of a bout of outright deflation in the euro-zone economy. While cost pressures are not as weak as they were when... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
