UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 13) The Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions survey shows that the supply of finance continues to improve in both the residential and commercial property sectors. However, there has been no easing... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) While broad money growth is holding firm, bank lending is continuing to contract. Although the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme appears to have stimulated consumer lending, corporate... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update CEDIN won’t solve Argentina’s balance of payments issues Argentina’s new certificate of deposit (CEDIN) is yet another stopgap measure aimed at alleviating a growing shortage of dollars. Without deeper reforms to economic policy, Argentina’s slow-burning... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s household borrowing figures show that, with households continuing to take on new debt and signs of life in the housing market, a consumer recovery may be taking root. But with real incomes... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking union: progress of sorts Recently, euro-zone policy makers have made commendable progress towards banking union. They have now agreed an ‘operational framework’ for the region’s bail-out fund, the ESM, to recapitalise banks... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions still tight Our latest Banking Heat Map suggests that credit conditions in most countries in Emerging Europe remain extremely tight. The main exception is Turkey, where credit growth has accelerated again in... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A brief primer on China's interbank market China’s cash crunch has shone a spotlight on its interbank market, which investors without a close interest in China’s banking and financial sector previously paid little attention to. In this month’s... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 13) May’s monetary data revealed that bank credit contracted again, reinforcing our belief that the ECB will be forced into further action by the end of the year. 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor QE tapering unlikely to trigger an EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Slovenia avoid a bail-out? In spite of Slovenia’s low public debt and small banks, the country is in a very precarious position given the scale of the rot in the banking sector. To avoid a bail-out, the Government will need to... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still very loose Government and corporate bond yields in most advanced economies increased sharply in the past few weeks in response to statements by the Fed which suggested that it will scale back its asset purchases... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reckless policymaking hints at appetite for reform There are some positives to be drawn from China’s cash crunch. The episode is arguably the strongest sign yet that the leadership is willing to suffer short-term economic pain if necessary to achieve... 24th June 2013 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q2 2013 Businesses remain relatively confident about the economy overall but, when it comes to their own situation, they have recently turned much more downbeat. Meanwhile, Chinese households are as reluctant... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) As the Fed prepares to taper its program of quantitative easing, there are some concerns in Asia that it could trigger a messy re-run of 1994. We think these concerns are exaggerated. 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Households' showing signs of borrowing fatigue Although our seasonally-adjusted measure of the household debt-to-income ratio nudged higher in the first quarter of this year, the trend appears to have stabilised. This suggests that there is even... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Cash crunch signals policymakers’ credit concerns Short-lived cash crunches in China are not unusual. But the fact that the People’s Bank has allowed the current crunch to persist so long when economic growth remains weak signals the depth of its... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
