UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 13) The tone of the latest Credit Conditions survey was positive, with the supply of and demand for credit rising in both the residential and commercial property sectors in Q4 last year. But lenders seem... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 13) The tone of the latest Credit Conditions survey was positive, with the supply of and demand for credit rising in both the residential and commercial property sectors in Q4 last year. But lenders seem... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling unemployment unlikely to prompt rate hike While unemployment is falling swiftly towards the 7% threshold above which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has pledged to keep official interest rates on hold, it remains unlikely that rates will... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The latest PMI surveys signal that there was a broad slowdown in manufacturing activity at the end of 2013. Most notably, activity among large firms, a recent source of strength, has turned a corner... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q4 2013 Business sentiment about China’s broad economic outlook recovered this quarter but most firms remain downbeat about their own prospects. Bankers are relaxed about the current state of monetary policy... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Retail sales growth accelerating The recent pick-up in the growth rate of underlying retail sales suggests that we are finally seeing a strengthening in domestic demand. It may well be sustained too. Coming out of the recession, the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s debt write-down plan will support the recovery Iceland’s controversial plan for more debt relief for indebted households is, despite some risks, a positive for the economy. But the scope for similar measures in the euro-zone’s periphery is limited... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) Broad money growth continues to slow very gradually but, with the annual growth rate of our M3 measure still at a healthy 5.8% in November, there is no reason for concern, particularly not when... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking Union progress offers little near-term relief Last week, euro-zone policy-makers moved closer to an agreement on the Single Resolution Mechanism responsible for handling failed banks. But while this is certainly a positive step, it will leave the... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Slovenian stress tests boost efforts to avoid bail-out Slovenia’s new bank recapitalisation plans will help the country avoid a bail-out. But its stress test results might have worrying implications for the euro-zone’s own upcoming evaluation of banks. 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending & Outstanding Credit (Nov.) While bank lending was stronger than anticipated last month, overall credit growth continued to slow. The relative strength of loan demand may reflect the fact that rising market interest rates have... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) Despite a sharp fall in the money multiplier, the growth rates of bank lending and broad money reached fresh highs in November. 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How might policymakers react when the EM credit bubble bursts? We have previously identified six emerging markets where credit growth appears to be unsustainable: Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Turkey. In the event of a crisis, past experience... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economic activity picks up further Judging by the latest business surveys, activity in advanced economies has strengthened further. The global manufacturing PMI is now consistent on past form with world GDP growth of as much as 4%... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weak growth & strong euro keep pressure on ECB Having slowed almost to a halt in Q3, early indications suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is unlikely to have regained much momentum – if any – in the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation easing despite stronger recovery CPI inflation fell sharply from 2.7% to 2.2% in October and it looks likely to fall below the 2% target soon. Past falls in global agricultural commodity prices suggest that food price inflation will... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
