Europe Economics Update Cyprus: Disaster averted, but with lasting effects While the Cypriot banking package has averted imminent disaster, the episode will have damaging effects on Cyprus’s economy and has raised new questions over the stability of the currency union. 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Limits to credit-driven growth come into focus Latin America’s recent lending boom continues to deflate, strengthening our belief that credit can’t be as big a driver of growth going forward as it has been in recent years. With household balance... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Cyprus? The Cypriot Parliament’s overwhelming rejection of the proposed levy on bank deposits adds to the uncertainty surrounding the future of Cyprus and increases the risk of the country eventually exiting... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2013 Confidence is rising, but business leaders in China are less upbeat about conditions for their own firms than they are about the wider economy. This suggests that sentiment may be running ahead of... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The growth rates of broad money, including our own measure of M3, have slowed recently, even as the Fed has expanded its quantitative easing. We suspect this decline reflects a fall in the... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will there be more contagion from the crisis in Cyprus? The negative reaction in Europe’s financial markets to the decision to "bail in" depositors in Cyprus has been fairly muted so far. Admittedly, the euro fell below $1.30 against the dollar on Monday... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the Cypriot bail-out deal mean for Russia? Russia’s financial markets have taken fright this morning following the announcement of details of the Cypriot bail-out, which looks set to hit Russian deposits there hard. But despite the fact that... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Cyprus really a special case? The plan to impose losses on Cypriot bank depositors has potentially serious implications for financial stability in the euro-zone as a whole. Cyprus is arguably a special case, but given remaining... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Time to tackle the pound? With a review of the monetary framework looking likely, policymakers should consider giving the pound a more explicit role in policy. Committing to a lower pound would not be without its costs; in the... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) High hopes are resting on the ability of the Bank of Japan’s new leadership to revitalise the economy. A look at the latest monetary aggregates underlines the challenges they face. 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will Denmark remain the Nordic laggard? Denmark is finally dragging itself out of its long slump. Households have started to deleverage, exporters have become more competitive and banks are now stronger. But given that these adjustments... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economic rebound may already be stalling The weekend’s data releases suggest that China’s economic rebound is faltering sooner than expected, even by relative pessimists such as ourselves. 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economy-wide deleveraging may be over The economy-wide deleveraging process, which has constrained the economic recovery over the past four years, may now be over. Moreover, as any remaining deleveraging in the household sector can be... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q4 12) Q4’s Icelandic GDP data confirmed that the economy is slowly recovering from its financial crisis. But while Iceland looks set to continue to outperform the peripheral euro-zone economies this year... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Potential student loan losses are not a systemic concern Rapidly rising delinquency rates have made us more concerned about the quadrupling in student loan debt over the past decade to £1trn. But we still don’t think this poses a major threat to the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Funding for Lending Scheme not boosting lending yet The second set of data on the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) suggested that take-up of the scheme is increasing, but that lending is not yet rising as a result. 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
