Europe Economics Update What to expect from the ECB’s Asset Quality Review The ECB’s planned review of banks’ balance sheets is key to resuscitating the euro-zone’s struggling banking sector. Forthcoming stress tests are likely to be more credible than previous rounds, but... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Broad money growth has stabilised at a healthy rate, but the further slowdown in the growth rate of bank lending is disconcerting. 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Nabiullina’s first meeting suggests policy continuity Russia’s Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at its first meeting under the new governor, Elvira Nabiullina, confirming our view that the change in leadership at the CBR is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending & Outstanding Credit (Jun.) Round one in the fight between policymakers and lenders has gone to the former. Outstanding credit growth has slowed. But the key, as yet unanswered, question is whether the slowdown will continue now... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Limited economic impact from higher borrowing costs It now looks as though annualised GDP growth in the second quarter could be as low as 1.0%. But growth will still accelerate later in the year. It is also encouraging that, so far at least, activity... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 13) The Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions survey shows that the supply of finance continues to improve in both the residential and commercial property sectors. However, there has been no easing... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) While broad money growth is holding firm, bank lending is continuing to contract. Although the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme appears to have stimulated consumer lending, corporate... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update CEDIN won’t solve Argentina’s balance of payments issues Argentina’s new certificate of deposit (CEDIN) is yet another stopgap measure aimed at alleviating a growing shortage of dollars. Without deeper reforms to economic policy, Argentina’s slow-burning... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s household borrowing figures show that, with households continuing to take on new debt and signs of life in the housing market, a consumer recovery may be taking root. But with real incomes... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking union: progress of sorts Recently, euro-zone policy makers have made commendable progress towards banking union. They have now agreed an ‘operational framework’ for the region’s bail-out fund, the ESM, to recapitalise banks... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions still tight Our latest Banking Heat Map suggests that credit conditions in most countries in Emerging Europe remain extremely tight. The main exception is Turkey, where credit growth has accelerated again in... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A brief primer on China's interbank market China’s cash crunch has shone a spotlight on its interbank market, which investors without a close interest in China’s banking and financial sector previously paid little attention to. In this month’s... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 13) May’s monetary data revealed that bank credit contracted again, reinforcing our belief that the ECB will be forced into further action by the end of the year. 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor QE tapering unlikely to trigger an EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Slovenia avoid a bail-out? In spite of Slovenia’s low public debt and small banks, the country is in a very precarious position given the scale of the rot in the banking sector. To avoid a bail-out, the Government will need to... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still very loose Government and corporate bond yields in most advanced economies increased sharply in the past few weeks in response to statements by the Fed which suggested that it will scale back its asset purchases... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
