UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) Ostensibly, January’s household borrowing figures suggested that that the pick-up in credit growth seen in recent months is tailing off. However, the bad weather in January is likely to have played a... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb. 13) Growth of the broad money supply turned up in January, although we suspect that seasonal effects may have played a role. Meanwhile, bank lending remains weak although it is probably still too soon for... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks well placed to boost lending further The FDIC’s banking profile for the fourth quarter of last year shows that US banks are well placed to continue boosting lending to both firms and households. At the same time, there is not much... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could the downgrade be a good thing? The sanguine market reaction to the loss of the UK’s triple-A credit rating begs the question of whether it might actually have some positive effects on the economy. But the key point is that the... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rating downgrade underlines economic weakness Moody’s downgrade of UK government debt from Aaa to Aa1 is unlikely to prompt any major changes to the Government’s fiscal plans, but underlines the weak outlook for the economy. 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hooked on credit Four years after China’s economy was rescued by a huge loan-fuelled stimulus, its economic growth continues to be shored up by an unsustainable dependence on credit. 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs right to be wary of rapid capital inflows Behind the rhetoric of global currency wars lies a more fundamental concern that loose monetary policy in the developed economies will lead to rapid and destabilising capital inflows to the emerging... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Feb.) Recent data underline that, other than in the US, very loose monetary policy is still not translating into faster credit growth. 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Sluggish Egyptian economy reduces prospect of IMF deal All eyes have focused on the fall of the Egyptian pound since the end of last year. But at the same time, the economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse. This suggests that job creation probably... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Surge in credit causes headache for policymakers Policymakers will pay little attention to last month’s drop in inflation or the acceleration in exports, given the usual volatility around Chinese New Year. But a surge in off-balance-sheet bank... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 still points to big problems While the recent slight reduction in TARGET2 imbalances echoes other signs of improvement in the euro-zone, they still point to serious underlying problems in the economy and banking sector. 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Is the talk of a return to "original sin" justified? Fears that some African countries are returning to a period of “original sin” - characterised by excessive borrowing in foreign currency - appear somewhat premature. External debt levels are far lower... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks see rebound in demand for business loans The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) reveals an encouraging bounce back in demand for business loans, which suggests that investment growth could accelerate over the first half of this... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fading credit boom takes the shine off Latin America Signs that Latin America’s lending boom has faded support our belief that credit can’t continue to be as big an economic driver as in the recent past, and we expect GDP growth to ease this year... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone risks ease but banks remain fragile The continued improvement in sentiment towards the euro-zone has simultaneously eased external funding conditions for Emerging Europe’s banks and reduced the threat of financial contagion from the... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data have brought further signs of an improvement in financial market conditions. However, lending to firms and households has continued to fall and seems unlikely to... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
