UK Data Response Ind. Prod. & Trade (Aug.), Credit Cond. Survey (Q3) August’s weak industrial production and trade figures signal that GDP growth in the third quarter might not be quite as strong as the business surveys have suggested. Meanwhile, the latest Credit... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Confidence in the recovery strengthens The economic recovery is becoming more entrenched, with GDP confirmed as having grown by 0.7% in Q2 and expansion evident across all three main sectors of the economy. Meanwhile, sentiment has risen... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Falling inflation increases scope for monetary easing The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to 1.1% in September – its lowest rate since February 2010 – leaves it well below the ECB’s target of “below, but close to, 2%”. While falling energy inflation has... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While the pick-up in certain measures of broad money is another encouraging sign that the economy has turned a corner, the continued weakness of bank lending could prevent the economic recovery from... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we be concerned about credit growth in the Gulf? Rapid credit growth in the Gulf has fuelled fears that the region is experiencing a credit binge similar to that which culminated in Dubai’s crisis in 2009. But, for now at least, we think that there... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The continued weakness of the euro-zone monetary data in August suggests that the pick-up in the real economy rests on fragile foundations. 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Household net worth continues to rebound The Federal Reserve's latest financial accounts show that households continued to deleverage in the second quarter, while the increase in public sector debt was the smallest since the financial crisis... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the tide turning? EPFR Global data for July and August suggest that ETF and mutual fund portfolio flows into emerging markets (EMs) may have remained negative in Q3 2013 for the second quarter running amid ongoing... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update More LTROs could have a downside The execution of more long-term refinancing operations (LTROs) by the ECB could ease concerns over a potential liquidity crisis in the banking sector. But it could also further strengthen the... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Credit slowdown set to weigh on Thailand’s growth Thailand’s economic growth since the global financial crisis has been supported by an unsustainable surge in credit. Cooling this credit boom is essential to avoid a future crisis but, as this happens... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Cross-border lending exposes Japanese banks to new risks Japan has regained its position as the world's largest international lender. This partly reflects the relative stability of the country's banking sector in recent years. But it is also the result of a... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Have Emerging Europe’s banks turned the corner? Emerging Europe has been the laggard of the emerging world over the past few years, due in large part to problems in its banks. But with the region seemingly on the mend, might local banking sectors... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Over the past few months, broad money has grown at the fastest pace in several years in y/y terms. However, the Bank of Japan can only take part of the credit: the initial acceleration happened well... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The slight moderation in the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregates should help to ease fears that the Fed's quantitative easing is putting upward pressure on price inflation. The growth... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Little threat of a systemic EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Credit Monitor (Jul.) Restrictive mortgage rules and rising fixed mortgage rates suggest that the slowdown in household credit growth is likely to persist. Meanwhile, trends in business sector credit growth suggest that... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
