Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The continued weakness of the euro-zone monetary data in July suggests that the pick-up in the real economy rests on fragile foundations. 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack NPLs continue to pick up There has been an increase in the value of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking system since Q3 2011, as the economy has slowed. At face value, this problem does not yet appear too serious... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth comes with mounting risks Turkey’s economy has picked up pace over the first half of this year, but this has been fuelled by a sharprise in credit and has come at the expense of a renewed widening of the current account... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The Fed's continuing monthly asset purchases haven't prevented a further slowdown in the growth rate of the narrow M1 monetary aggregate, although our measure of the M3 aggregate suggests that broad... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese recovery built on weak foundations Today’s data releases provide further evidence that China’s economy is improving. However, the rebound has been driven by investment spending and fuelled by rapid credit growth earlier this year. A... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery entering a slower phase Japan’s economy likely continued to grow at a solid pace in the second quarter of the year, even though the recent wide divergence between various measures of consumer spending raises question marks... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China suffering from deflation? If China has dropped into deflation, as many now claim, one implication is that stimulus would succeed in driving a sustainable economic rebound. But evidence of deflation is weak, at best. This is... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The UK’s monetary indicators continue to paint a mixed picture, with respectable growth in broad money contrasting with further falls in bank lending, particularly to firms as a whole. However, a... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The further weakening in the key euro-zone monetary aggregates in June has further strengthened the case for additional policy stimulus from the ECB. 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) & ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2) The rise in the euro-zone PMI in July provides further evidence that the region may be exiting recession. But with credit conditions still tight and fiscal policy set to remain contractionary, a... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mounting strains on the ESM The lending capacity of the euro-zone’s bail-out funds is coming under strain again. €289bn of the ESM’s €500bn lending capacity has already been committed and developments in Portugal, Greece and... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from the ECB’s Asset Quality Review The ECB’s planned review of banks’ balance sheets is key to resuscitating the euro-zone’s struggling banking sector. Forthcoming stress tests are likely to be more credible than previous rounds, but... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Broad money growth has stabilised at a healthy rate, but the further slowdown in the growth rate of bank lending is disconcerting. 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Nabiullina’s first meeting suggests policy continuity Russia’s Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at its first meeting under the new governor, Elvira Nabiullina, confirming our view that the change in leadership at the CBR is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending & Outstanding Credit (Jun.) Round one in the fight between policymakers and lenders has gone to the former. Outstanding credit growth has slowed. But the key, as yet unanswered, question is whether the slowdown will continue now... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Limited economic impact from higher borrowing costs It now looks as though annualised GDP growth in the second quarter could be as low as 1.0%. But growth will still accelerate later in the year. It is also encouraging that, so far at least, activity... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
