Europe Economics Update LTRO repayments to give mixed signals The expected repayment of some ECB LTRO funding should add to signs that the region’s banking system is on the mend. But it will also underline the weakness of demand in the region and could fuel... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sharp fall in the pound wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing Concerns are building that sterling is on the brink of a sharp fall. While certainly possible, it is not as inevitable as some appear to assume. And it might not be such a bad thing in any case. 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The annual growth rate of our measure of the broadest M3 monetary aggregate hit a three-and-a-half-year high of 6.4% in December, with the growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 aggregates also... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly $1trn coin not a realistic option The fanciful idea that the US Treasury could circumvent the debt ceiling by minting a $1trn platinum coin suddenly exploded in popularity last week. This is never going to happen. One question that... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stalling credit growth points to limited economic rebound There were signs of strengthening developed world demand in China’s latest export data. Stronger growth in China is being reflected in rising imports. But with credit growth levelling off, a strong... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Debate over size of Russian outflows misses the point A spat towards the end of last year over the true scale of capital flight from Russia risks missing the bigger picture, which is that capital continues to flow out of the country in the first place... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The broad money supply is continuing to expand at a decent pace, but growth has been easing off. Meanwhile, bank lending remains weak although there is some indication of a loosening in credit... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) & Construction PMI (Dec.) The tone of both of today’s commercial property data releases was downbeat. Although the latest Bank of England survey showed that credit supply in the sector has improved slightly, borrowers are not... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data brought no signs of any easing in the severe credit constraints facing both households and companies in the single currency area. 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) & Productivity (Q3) The Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions Survey provided further evidence that the positive impact of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is building. What’s more, the beneficial effects are... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The incoming LDP government is likely to put increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to enact more aggressive monetary easing. But the latest data show that monetary conditions are already extremely... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow progress towards banking union The European Council finally managed to reach some important compromises last week, allowing progress to be made towards setting up an EU-wide bank supervisor in the form of the ECB. But, presumably... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending and total social financing (Nov.) Today’s lending data released by the People’s Bank support the view that current policy support is insufficient to drive a prolonged acceleration in economic growth. 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Households still paying down debt The household debt to disposable income ratio fell to a nine-year low of 113% in the third quarter, down from a peak of 134%. The deleveraging process will continue for a few more years, although with... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Negative bank rates won't depress the Swiss franc for long Credit Suisse’s announcement that it will charge other banks for holding large Swiss franc deposits with it has helped to ease the pressure on the currency for now. But while we have revised down our... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manuf. (Nov.) & FLS usage (Q3) The small improvement in the UK CIPS/Markit manufacturing survey in November did little to change the fundamental picture of a struggling industrial sector. Meanwhile, the first data on the usage of... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
