Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone still on track for a grinding recovery Although the Bank of Spain’s Q3 GDP estimate suggested that Spain may have exited its two-year recession, the fall in the euro-zone composite PMI in October highlighted that the region’s economic... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Threat to recovery from energy prices overplayed With last week’s GDP figures providing further evidence that the economic recovery is becoming entrenched, the recovery should be able to withstand the looming round of energy price hikes. Indeed... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone monetary data perhaps offered tentative signs that the fall in bank lending is easing, but a decent pick-up in credit remains a distant prospect. 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Debt overhang a risk on horizon for parts of Latin America Lending growth has continued to cool in most parts of Latin America over the course of 2013. Although the credit boom of the past decade has yet to be reflected in a significant rise in default rates... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep 13.) Our M3* measure of broad money, which replicates the series discontinued by the Fed, continued to grow at a healthy annual rate of nearly 6% in September. But the longer the Fed delays the tapering of... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone enjoy a "creditless recovery"? The recent pick-up in the euro-zone economy stands in marked contrast to the accelerating contraction in bank credit. Given the importance of banks to the region, a “creditless recovery” will not be... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will happen after next year's bank stress tests? Euro-zone Finance Ministers made little progress on Banking Union at their summit this week. If next year’s stress tests find large holes in bank balance sheets, there is still no clear mechanism to... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Easy financial conditions and record-low bank lending rates continue to propel a strong expansion of the monetary aggregates and bank lending. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Welcome slowdown in credit, but inflation rising The slew of September data released in the last few days reveal a welcome slowdown in broad credit growth and a sharp pick-up in inflation. The latter may look alarming, but on closer inspection it... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s banks still vulnerable, but new crisis now less likely Ukraine’s banks have substantially decreased their external vulnerabilities over the past few years, meaning that they are now better placed to withstand a modest hryvnia devaluation and/or a slowdown... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Slovenia can still save itself from a bail-out Speculation has risen in recent weeks that Slovenia will be forced into some form of euro-zone bailout. But the country can still avoid asking for outside help in dealing with its banking crisis. 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Prod. & Trade (Aug.), Credit Cond. Survey (Q3) August’s weak industrial production and trade figures signal that GDP growth in the third quarter might not be quite as strong as the business surveys have suggested. Meanwhile, the latest Credit... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Confidence in the recovery strengthens The economic recovery is becoming more entrenched, with GDP confirmed as having grown by 0.7% in Q2 and expansion evident across all three main sectors of the economy. Meanwhile, sentiment has risen... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Falling inflation increases scope for monetary easing The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to 1.1% in September – its lowest rate since February 2010 – leaves it well below the ECB’s target of “below, but close to, 2%”. While falling energy inflation has... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While the pick-up in certain measures of broad money is another encouraging sign that the economy has turned a corner, the continued weakness of bank lending could prevent the economic recovery from... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we be concerned about credit growth in the Gulf? Rapid credit growth in the Gulf has fuelled fears that the region is experiencing a credit binge similar to that which culminated in Dubai’s crisis in 2009. But, for now at least, we think that there... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
