Emerging Europe Economics Update Private sector debt still a major concern in parts of the region Domestic demand has been subdued across much of Emerging Europe over the past five years in part due to the fact that households and firms have been deleveraging following the credit boom of the past... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US pulling further ahead of the euro-zone All the evidence suggests that the US economy has bounced back during the past few months, after its weather-induced slump. Business surveys have remained buoyant, credit growth has accelerated and... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Pay growth likely to spring back soon While the economic recovery appears to have accelerated in Q2, workers are still failing to see the benefits in their pay packets. Annual growth in average weekly earnings fell from 2.2% to -1.7% in... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks remain despite recent calm Financial markets in the emerging world have rallied in the past quarter as fears about the impact of Fed tapering and a hard landing in China have eased. But while the latest Capital Economics Risk... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun. 14) May’s money and credit figures provided some more signs that the housing market recovery has lost some steam. Meanwhile, although the consumer recovery has continued apace, it has not lead to an... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Contagion from Bulgarian bank run limited The latest activity data suggest that growth across Emerging Europe has strengthened in recent months, but there are a few clouds on the horizon. For a start, the latest data from Germany, the largest... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s small improvement in the euro-zone monetary data will not be enough to shake off concerns that the financial sector is a brake on the recovery and does little to diminish the risk that the... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q2 2014 Business and household confidence in China took a turn for the worse this quarter, but it is not at an alarmingly low level. Meanwhile, banks are reporting a decline in loan demand, particularly from... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgarian bank failure puts region’s lenders back in spotlight The nationalisation of the troubled Bulgarian bank, Corporate Commercial Bank, over the weekend has put attention back onto Emerging Europe’s fragile financial sector. Given the rise in non-performing... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rate hikes in sight but policy still very loose Market expectations for policy rates have diverged in the past few weeks. The Bank of England suggested that its first rate hike could take place sooner than previously anticipated. Expectations for... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rate of our measure of M3*, which replicates the series discontinued by the Fed, accelerated to an 11-month high of 6.1% in May. This is entirely consistent with the recent rise in... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Policymakers’ efforts to channel bank lending to chosen parts of the economy are helping to support loan growth, even as controls on shadow banking continue to bite. Although this has helped to... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses warn about price pressures Recent trends in the small business sector highlight how an easing in credit constraints is oiling the wheels of growth and that a rise in both wage and price inflation may be lurking around the... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Three scenarios for how Asia’s credit binge will end We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s credit binge is unsustainable. While we don’t think an Asia-wide financial crisis is likely, the countries that have seen the biggest build-up... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Germany's share of total property investment unlikely to fall this year Euro-zone occupier markets stand to benefit as economic growth becomes broader based across the region. Yet while property investment in most countries should increase as a result, over the next year... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 14) Although the latest figures showed further signs of subdued growth in broad money and particularly bank lending, we doubt that this is a sign the economic recovery will lose steam soon. Indeed, it... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
