UK Commercial Property Focus Four reasons to be positive about property lending prospects Data from the Bank of England show that banks and building societies are continuing to scale back their exposure to the property sector at a rapid rate. But a growing body of survey and anecdotal... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The expansion in the broad money supply ground to a halt in February, and the annual growth rates may well have peaked for now. However, the fundamentals for a further acceleration in bank lending... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out has bigger problems than current dispute Greece and the Troika may resolve the issues that have delayed the latest loan disbursement soon, but this will not resolve the fact that the country’s bail-out rests on unrealistic forecasts. 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s banks still the economy’s weakest link It looks like Ukraine’s banking sector has withstood the political crisis in better shape than we had feared. Credit conditions are likely to tighten sharply over the coming months, but a messier... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Despite looser monetary conditions in China and concerns that the government is adopting a more “pro-growth” stance, today’s data show that credit has continued to slow. 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone consumers yet to join the recovery While euro-zone activity indicators suggest that the region’s recovery has picked up speed a bit in the early months of 2014, growth remains worryingly unbalanced. For now, exporters appear to be... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Does Portugal need more help? The chances of Portugal following in Ireland’s footsteps and making a “clean break” from its bailout have recently grown. Nonetheless, we think that it may still need further loans and some form of... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb. 14) January’s slowing of growth in the broad money supply and lending confirms that the recovery is neither generating inflation nor being fuelled by an unsustainable pick-up in borrowing. 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jan. 14) Net property lending by banks and building societies remains negative. But we suspect this is only because distressed stock is finally being sold and the debt repaid. Indeed, with anecdotal evidence... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manuf. (Feb.) & Mortgage Approvals (Jan.) February’s CIPS manufacturing report confirmed that the sector’s recovery has not been knocked off course by sterling’s appreciation. Meanwhile, although the latest data show mortgage lending is... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much financial support does Ukraine need? As Ukraine’s political transition progresses, attention has turned to the urgent need for external assistance in order to avoid a balance of payments crisis and possibly even a default on its external... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary aggregates still expanding rapidly The monetary base in advanced economies has continued expanding in recent weeks, largely due to the asset purchase programmes of the Fed and the Bank of Japan. Indeed, the aggregate monetary base of... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Broad money growth appears to have stabilised, with our measure of the M3 aggregate rebounding slightly to 4.6% in January, from 4.4%. (See Chart below.) Elsewhere, the slowdown in the growth rate of... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Banking union: a step rather than a leap forward The euro-zone’s proposed banking union will help to strengthen the region’s financial system. But the benefits will be slow to feed into the real economy. And the current framework for banking union... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Uneven recovery in lending conditions Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that lending conditions are diverging across the region. Credit growth is gathering pace in countries with healthier banking sectors, such as the Czech Republic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan 14.) The annual growth rate of the money supply seems to be levelling off, and is likely to remain broadly stable in coming months. By contrast, bank lending may still accelerate further as loan demand... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
