US Employment Report Preview Braced for an outright fall in payrolls There is a real danger that the recent economic slowdown and financial market turmoil resulted in non-farm payroll employment falling outright in August, perhaps by around 25,000. That would be the... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug.) & Labour market (Jun./Jul.) August’s MPC minutes and the latest labour market data strongly supported the markets’ (and our own) assumption that interest rates will remain on hold for at least the next couple of years. 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) July's employment report will go some way to reducing fears that the economy is slipping into another recession. But it highlights that the labour market has hardly recovered at all from the recession... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) The small increase in July's employment is not entirely surprising, considering the strong gains over the previous three months. More importantly, the details of the jobs report were fairly... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Squeeze on real pay to worsen With the economic recovery still struggling to regain momentum, we have recently lowered our forecasts for consumer spending and GDP growth this year. We now expect a 1.5% drop in real spending. We... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Manu. PMI (Final, Jul.) June’s euro-zone unemployment figures provide further evidence that the labour market is starting to weaken in response to the slowdown in the wider economy. 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery on track as outlook brightens There was further evidence today that the recovery in Japan was broadly on track at the end of Q2. Although the labour market remains weak, and power shortages continue, businesses are optimistic... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Rising layoffs hint at more permanent slowdown The fact that the recent slowdown in jobs growth is mostly due to a rise in firings, rather than a fall in hiring, suggests that a rapid rebound in non-farm payroll employment is not imminent. Our... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Which measure of employment is right? There has been a striking divergence between the two main measures of employment recently. But regardless of which is painting the more accurate picture, the labour market outlook remains poor. 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery levelling off The economy showed further signs of recovery from the earthquake-induced slump at it approached the end of the second quarter. Looking ahead to Q3, survey based measures suggest the recovery is... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How quickly will remittances to the Philippines grow this year? Growth in remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) to the Philippines has slowed since the 2008-09 global crisis. However, we believe that remittances growth is likely to stabilise rather than... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Businesses poised for employee hiring spree? Businesses are poised for an employee hiring spree, judging by the upbeat second quarter Business Outlook Survey results. Among the firms surveyed from late May to mid-June, the balance of opinion on... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing starts may have peaked this year Housing starts reached an annualised 197,000 units in June, up from a revised 194,000 in the month before. Housing starts this high are arguably well above estimates of demographic requirements, which... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (May/Jun.) The labour market figures are still painting a bit of a mixed picture about the strength of the jobs recovery. But with the economic recovery still struggling, we continue to expect unemployment to... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) June's employment report doesn't have a single redeeming feature. It's awful from start to finish. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 18,000 last month, down from a similarly muted 25,000 gain the... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Recent employment gains have been respectable, including the 28,400 jobs added in June. The thorny issue, however, is that average hours worked are still well below normal, reflecting the sub-par... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
