UK Data Response UK Labour Market Data (Nov./Dec.) On the face of it, the latest UK labour market figures provide some tentative signs that the jobs recovery is back on track. But we continue to think that unemployment will rise sharply over the next... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is offshoring undermining the labour market recovery? The continued weakness of US jobs growth can partly be explained by offshoring. Tempted by lower labour costs and lower corporate taxes overseas, multinational firms are expanding employment abroad... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 103,000 gain in payroll employment in December was very disappointing after the spectacular 297,000 gain touted by the ADP survey. Admittedly, the drop in the unemployment rate, from 9.8% in... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) Despite the modest acceleration in employment growth in December, Canada's economy didn't generate enough net new jobs to drive the unemployment rate any lower. The unemployment rate remained... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. (Nov.) & GDP (Q3) & German IP (Nov.) The latest euro-zone data once again highlight the huge divergences that are building up in the region and may also add to fears that the industrial recovery is failing to spread to other sectors of... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Non-Manufact'ng & ADP Employment (Dec.) The latest ISM non-manufacturing and ADP private payroll surveys both suggest that the economic recovery picked up some significant momentum towards the end of last year. Growth should remain fairly... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Don't trust the initial jobless claims figures The sharp decline in the number of initial jobless claims towards the end of last year should not be interpreted as a sign that the labour market recovery is gaining momentum. Nonetheless, the 39,000... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Dec.) December’s bigger-than-expected rise in euro-zone CPI inflation probably reflected energy and food effects. Underlying price pressures in the region remain very weak. 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov.) The recovery in the UK labour market appears to be flagging even before the public sector job cuts have really started. We still expect unemployment to rise fairly sharply over the next couple of... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus The investment implications of China's tightening labour market The ongoing structural shift in China’s workforce will cause economic growth to slow and is likely to result in higher, though still manageable, inflation. Household incomes may finally start rising... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November's Employment Report was a painful reality check for those hoping that a meaningful acceleration in economic activity was underway. The truth is that the economic recovery is going nowhere at... 3rd December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The dramatic slowdown in economic growth is preventing any real improvement in labour market conditions. Not only is the economy struggling to generate enough jobs to have a meaningful impact on... 3rd December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest news on the euro-zone economy suggests that the recent strength of activity in the region is doing little to raise price pressures or improve conditions in the labour market. 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Industrial Production (Oct.) As usual the latest Japanese data include something for everyone, with unemployment edging higher but industrial production not as weak as feared in October and expected to recover. 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Companies still reluctant to boost hiring Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment increased by around 130,000 in November. That would be consistent with other evidence showing that labour market conditions have yet to improve... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK MPC Minutes & Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov.) The minutes of November’s MPC meeting and the latest labour market figures tell us little new about the monetary policy debate. The MPC remains in wait and see mode until clearer signals on the... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
