US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The decline in the unemployment rate to a two-and-a-half-year low of 8.6% in November, from 9.0%, is another illustration that the US economy is, for now at least, shrugging off the global economic... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's surprising 18,600 decline in employment, which followed an even greater decline in the month prior, is discouraging to say the least. Given the deepening global financial crisis, an... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov./Oct.) The latest euro-zone data revealed a nasty combination of high inflation and rising unemployment to add to the region’s troubles. 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Labour market fragile, but not deteriorating Japan’s labour market is weaker than at the start of the year but the sharp rise in the unemployment rate in October makes conditions look worse than they are. The economy is not shedding jobs, but... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q3) and payroll employment (Sep.) Further growth in non-financial business profits is one good reason to expect continued growth in business investment and perhaps payroll employment. That said, the uncertainty surrounding what impact... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Better economy starts to help young workers Our employment model suggests that the recent improvement in economic activity is consistent with non-farm payrolls increasing by around 100,000 in November, up from October's 80,000 gain. It is also... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are City jobs for London's housing market? Popular perception dictates that City jobs are a crucial driver of London’s housing market. Yet there have been at least two previous occasions when significant City redundancies did not trigger house... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker growth to be met with policy stimulus A combination of weak growth and deepening debt crises in the G7 and softer demand from China means that the economies of Latin America are likely to slow by more than most expect over the next few... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Sep./Oct.) The latest employment figures showed that the labour market is continuing to deteriorate rapidly. We still think that ILO unemployment will rise above the 3 million mark within the next couple of... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How important are remittances for emerging Asia? Concern is growing that the ongoing debt problems in the euro-zone could lead to another global financial and economic crisis. Remittances should provide a relatively stable source of income... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) October's Employment Report has pluses and minuses but, on balance, it is positive. Non-farm payrolls increased by a modest 80,000 last month, down from a revised 158,000 gain in September. 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) October's employment figures cruelly dashed any optimism that may have built up after the surprisingly good performance in September. Employment fell by 54,000 last month, reversing most of the 60,900... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Export weakness not Taiwan's only concern Taiwan always struggles when global demand slows and the coming year will be no exception. But the relative weakness of Taiwan’s labour market is a second reason to think that GDP growth in 2012 will... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Oct./Sep.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment data might leave the hawks at the ECB still concerned about underlying price pressures. 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Don't blame small firms Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of indicators, suggests that non-farm payroll employment rose by around 75,000 in October. That would be broadly similar to the increases seen in... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the labour market now capitulating? Last week’s data suggested that conditions in the labour market are now deteriorating again at a rapid pace. Rather than being just a blip, we fear that this will mark the beginning of another... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
