Europe Economics Update Is the Spanish labour market really on the mend? Some commentators have pointed to the recent run of encouraging Spanish unemployment figures as evidence that the green shoots of recovery may be emerging there. But we are far from convinced that the... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry should still outperform Despite a poor start to the year there are still good reasons to expect Mexican manufacturing to strengthen over the second half of 2013 and support a period of relatively strong growth in the wider... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imbalances widen, despite slowdown With today’s GDP data squarely in line with consensus expectations we would focus on two other points, one encouraging, the other less so. The good news is that the labour market remains healthy,with... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment threshold would have its problems With Mark Carney having already primed expectations at July’s MPC meeting, we still expect the MPC to embark on full-blown forward guidance at its meeting next month. An unemployment threshold is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is this now a “job-full” recovery? The economy has recently been enjoying something of a “job-full” recovery as employment has been rising at a faster rate than GDP. Activity will probably catch up later this year, but in the near-term... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa's rigid labour market to hold back growth The latest round of biennial economy-wide wage negotiations in South Africa could be the catalyst for a renewed flare-up in labour unrest. But they are also likely to cast a spotlight on the country’s... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business intentions soften further The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that businesses do not expect any material improvement in future sales growth and, as a result, are scaling back their investment plans. Accordingly... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun. 13) Any doubts (or hopes!) that the Fed wouldn’t follow through on its plan to taper QE3 later this year in response to some of the recent weaker activity data were dealt a major blow by the 195,000... 5th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) The fact that employment was unchanged in June, after posting a record-matching 95,000 gain in May, is an encouraging sign that economic conditions did not worsen too much in the second quarter... 5th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy decelerates in second quarter After being propelled by a rebound in energy exports earlier this year, economic growth appears to have decelerated heading into the second quarter. Moderate export growth, cautious business... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) & ADP Survey (Jun.) The sharp widening in the international trade deficit in May suggests that second-quarter annualised GDP growth may be even weaker than the 1.5% we have been expecting. At the same time, the... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rising wages needed to keep up with higher prices Today’s official release confirmed that labour cash earnings were still subdued in May, but we can already be confident that higher summer bonuses will deliver much better headlines for June and July... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will consumers drive a recovery after all? Growth in consumer spending has been one of the few bright spots for the economy over the past year. But we doubt a continued consumer recovery will be that strong, at least in the near-term. In any... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & Unemployment (May) The latest euro-zone inflation and labour market figures brought a slight note of caution after the recent improvement in some of the region’s activity indicators. 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Softer surveys point to more modest monthly job gains The recent weakening in the survey evidence suggests that jobs growth in June may not have quite matched the 175,000 rise in payroll employment in May. But an increase in payrolls of around 150,000... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: weak May's data to fuel stimulus debate Part of the weakness of May’s activity data in Russia can be explained by working day effects. Nonetheless, the bigger picture is that while there is some (albeit tentative) evidence that the slump in... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
