Japan Data Response Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales (Sep.) & Small Business Confidence (Oct.) Today's data show that economic momentum remains strong. Small business confidence and retail sales both reached new multi-year highs, helped by strong employment gains. 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What's behind the slowdown in jobs growth? A satisfactory explanation for the easing in jobs growth is hard to find, but a fading of the fiscal drag and a further pick up in overseas demand means it probably won’t be sustained for long. We... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone still on track for a grinding recovery Although the Bank of Spain’s Q3 GDP estimate suggested that Spain may have exited its two-year recession, the fall in the euro-zone composite PMI in October highlighted that the region’s economic... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep 13.) Despite the further decline in the unemployment rate to a five-year low of 7.2% in September, from 7.3%, the disappointing 148,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month will reinforce market... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Why South Africa needs a weaker rand The South African rand was one of the hardest hit EM currencies during the summer sell-off and has now fallen by 15% against the US$ since the start of the year. However, as this Watch explains, a... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ILO unemployment won’t necessarily follow claimant count down The claimant count measure of unemployment has been falling more sharply than the wider ILO measure used by the MPC in its forward guidance on interest rates. While the claimant count is a timelier... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) The latest labour market figures supported the MPC’s (and our own) view that even a fairly robust economic recovery will bring unemployment down only slowly. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Oct.) We think that this Wednesday’s labour market figures will show that the unemployment rate held steady in August, which could prompt markets to push back further their expected timing of the first rise... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New housing activity spread signalling slowdown ahead The historically high number of housing units under construction justifies the current strength of construction employment. But the negative spread between housing starts and completions signals that... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's modest 11,900 increase in employment, mostly among younger workers, still suggests that the economy is struggling to generate any material improvement in broader labour market conditions... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack As good as it gets? Japan’s export-oriented manufacturing sector is benefiting from the recovery in the global economy and the weakness in the yen, but the signals on domestic demand are mixed. Business spending does... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects improve, but crisis unresolved The European economy has shown further signs of recovery, with the euro-zone finally emerging from recession in the second quarter and other parts of the continent also faring better. But growth in... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery, but the right sort? The recent concerns about the type of economic recovery underway in the UK are overdone. While the recovery still faces some major challenges, we do not believe that an over-reliance on the housing... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Peripheral labour markets are healing, but very slowly Evidence mounted last week that euro-zone unemployment has peaked. Particularly encouragingly, many of the peripheral economies have now enjoyed several months of falling unemployment. What’s more... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Confidence in the recovery strengthens The economic recovery is becoming more entrenched, with GDP confirmed as having grown by 0.7% in Q2 and expansion evident across all three main sectors of the economy. Meanwhile, sentiment has risen... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Falling inflation increases scope for monetary easing The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to 1.1% in September – its lowest rate since February 2010 – leaves it well below the ECB’s target of “below, but close to, 2%”. While falling energy inflation has... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
