UK Economics Weekly Olympics explains part of the employment puzzle A close look at last week’s figures suggests that some of the apparent divergence between the strong employment and weak GDP figures may be explained by the Olympics. Come Games time, more than 100... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Jubilee boost short-lived Although consumer spending appears to have boosted at the start of June by the extended bank holiday, the fillip did not last for long and the underlying trend in spending still looks pretty mediocre... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery on hold as economy continues to slow The Japanese economy continued to slow throughout the second quarter and businesses expect only an anaemic recovery in Q3. The economy remains reliant on government support, with reconstruction... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market health belies talk of hard landing China’s economy is growing at one of the slowest rates in years but the labour market is showing few signs of strain. Migrant wages were up 13% y/y last quarter. There are still more jobs being... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Jul.) The latest regional figures show that the economic recovery in the Midlands has lost considerable pace. Meanwhile, although the official figures show that employment has continued to grow in most of... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul.) & Labour market (May/Jun.) The vote to do more quantitative easing (QE) this month was not unanimous, but the tone of the minutes was nonetheless pretty dovish. We still expect more asset purchases to be announced before the... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone drags down global recovery The euro-zone crisis is taking its toll on the rest of the world. Activity slowed in all major economies in the second quarter, including the US, China and Japan. We expect growth to pick up in the US... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Jubilee boost masks weaker picture The effects of early June’s Jubilee celebrations are now starting to come through in the economic data. Last week’s releases provided evidence of the positive effects of the extended holiday, but... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Unemployment a cyclical rather than structural problem Two data releases this morning offered only limited support to the claim made yesterday by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker that the economy is already close to full employment. 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will firms and households fare? With the drag from the euro-zone crisis on the UK economy set to grow, the chances of a decent recovery rest heavily on a strong revival in domestic spending. But neither firms nor households appear... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) June's modest 7,300 gain in employment was close to consensus expectations (+5,000) and supports our view that the economy grew more strongly in the second quarter, to 2.2% annualised from 1.9% in the... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 80,000 rise in payroll employment in June provides further evidence that the US economy has lost momentum since the turn of the year, but that the recovery is not grinding to a complete halt. 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices threaten investment prospects The faltering global economy has driven commodity prices lower, with Canadian oil prices down sharply from levels earlier this year. Although oil prices have risen somewhat over the past week, we... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation outlook improves The near-term inflation outlook has improved significantly in recent weeks. Inflation has fallen below 3% for the first time since the end of 2009. It will come under further downward pressure from... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weaker inflation to provide little relief Euro-zone activity indicators continue to point to a broad-based worsening in economic conditions. Admittedly, the prospect of further falls in CPI inflation (see Chart) following the recent plunge in... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
