Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Labour market reforms boost medium-term outlook Mexico’s labour market reforms are unlikely to lead to a swift acceleration in GDP growth in the very near-term. But with the re-election of the PRI seemingly having ended the political deadlock that... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Sep/Oct. 12) The latest labour market figures revealed that while employment has continued to grow, the pace of expansion is slowing. And timelier indicators suggest that the labour market’s recent resilience may... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are rising wages hurting China's exporters? A further doubling of average incomes this decade, as pledged in the Party Congress today by President Hu Jintao, will probably not undermine China highly-competitive manufacturing sector. 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Solving the business hiring/investment puzzle Businesses are developing a split personality. The slump in capital goods orders suggests that businesses are increasingly concerned about the looming fiscal cliff and/or the global economic slowdown... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone unemployment has much further to rise We suspect that the recent rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate is a sign of things to come and see the rate peaking at about 13.5% next year. This, together with continued fiscal austerity, is... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) China’s consumer price inflation was stable in October, we believe. Looking ahead, both inflation and economic activity look likely to pick up some pace in the next few months, weakening the case for... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Further slump in wage growth unlikely We doubt that the fall in the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings to a record low in October is the start of another downward leg that will eventually end in outright declines in earnings... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct. 12) October's unexpectedly weak 1,800 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was 10,000) can be forgiven given the unusually strong gains in the previous two months. The worsening economic outlook... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) We doubt that October's Employment Report is either strong enough or weak enough to have any marked impact on next week's presidential election. Non-farm payrolls increased by a better than expected... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Sep.) & Flash CPI (Oct.) The rise in euro-zone unemployment in September, coupled with the high level of CPI inflation, does not bode well for consumer spending in the latter part of 2012. 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update ADP revamp should be treated with caution Recent changes to the way the ADP calculates its measure of employment means it now has an even closer historical relationship with the official payroll data. But what really matters is whether it is... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment data swept up in pre-election hoopla As the last major piece of economic news to be released before the Presidential election, October’s Employment Report will attract even more attention than normal, with both parties attempting to spin... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Strong payrolls survey encouraging for third-quarter GDP The recent strength in non-farm payroll data, which have showed solid gains in both employment and average weekly earnings, indicates that an improvement in third-quarter wages and salaries growth... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are the labour market statistics telling the real story? In explaining the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ – the conundrum of a dismal GDP performance combined with strong employment growth – one possibility is that the GDP figures are understating the actual... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Oct.) & Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) October’s MPC minutes showed that the Committee is split over whether to do more quantitative easing (QE) once the current round of asset purchases are completed in the next couple of weeks. 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Seasonal problems with the U6 unemployment rate Jack Welch's tweet wasn't the only piece of nonsense written last week about the reported decline in the unemployment rate to 7.8% in September. The decline in the standard measure was questioned by... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
