Japan Economics Update Recovery starting to unravel The Economy Watchers’ Survey, published today, adds to the growing body of evidence that Japan’s economic recovery has not just paused but has started to unravel. Worryingly, labour market conditions... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Playing the long game We are among the most bearish forecasters on the near-term prospects for Emerging Europe and expect the region to underperform the rest of the emerging world over the next couple of years. But looking... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The bigger than expected 163,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July, up from a muted 64,000 in June, will ease fears that the US economy is following Europe into recession. If this proves to be the... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trouble in Japan's labour market The recent fall in Japan’s unemployment rate looks less encouraging when we consider that the level of employment has been little changed for three years. Much of the decline in unemployment is due to... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No quick fix to India and Pakistan’s power problems India attracted international headlines for all the wrong reasons (again) following massive power cuts that left half of its population without electricity for two days. Power cuts are alsoa big issue... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery loses more steam The latest figures on Japan’s economy do little to assuage fears that the recovery has lost its way. The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in July suggests that the industrial sector continues to... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Flash CPI (Jul.) With euro-zone inflation unchanged at 2.4% in July and unemployment at a record high in June, households’ incomes are under growing downward pressure. 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising dollar another drag on growth The recent increase in the dollar, to close to a two-year high against the euro, represents another headwind for US exporters when they already have to contend with the easing in demand in Europe and... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Energy prices determining inflation in Japan The latest figures for the consumer price index in June showed the economy continues to struggle to escape deflation. Underlying price pressures remain very weak with energy prices determining short... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Labour market improvement unlikely to be sustained Labour market conditions have steadily improved since the economic recovery took hold in mid-2009. This improvement, however, is partly due to a sharp rebound in construction activity. Although... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Three little words The markets got very excited about three little words at the end of last week. Spanish and Italian bond yields plunged, and the euro and euro-zone stock markets rose sharply, in response to ECB... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to worry over spike in agricultural prices The prices of many agricultural commodities have risen strongly over the past couple of months, raising fears of a sharp rise in inflation across the region. However, we believe the recent spike in... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Improvement in misery index may not last A look at the so-called misery index, a simple sum of the unemployment and inflation rates, suggests that households should be starting to feel a bit happier. But we think that the recent improvement... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Some signs of progress Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by around 100,000 in July, which would be slightly better than the 80,000 gain in June. This would still mean that employment... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (May) May's payroll survey data, which showed solid gains in average weekly earnings and employment, indicate that second-quarter wages and salaries increased by close to 7.0% annualised, more than double... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Spring slowdown flows into summer The economic slowdown that began in the spring months has continued into the summer. We estimate that GDP grew at an annualised rate of around 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
