Canada Economics Update Payroll employment (Mar.) and Balance of Payments (Q1) March's business payroll figures showed an encouraging 0.8% m/m gain in average weekly earnings and a respectable 48,950 gain in employment. Even so, given the previous declines in payroll employment... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (May) May’s fall in euro-zone CPI inflation and the drop in the German unemployment rate were rare pieces of good news for the beleaguered euro-zone. But the recent sharp falls in measures of business... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia’s economy is set to slow this year Our new Saudi Arabian whole-economy activity proxy suggests that GDP grew by around 7% y/y in the first quarter of this year, maintaining the record pace of growth in 2011. However, the combination of... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery already losing momentum Japan’s rapid recovery in Q1 already appears to be losing momentum. The unemployment rate has risen again and retail spending fell for a second consecutive month in April. However, government... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s elections add to vulnerabilities Early results from the first round of Egypt’s presidential election appear to have polarised society, pitting Islamists against secularists, and revolutionaries against the old guard. The outcome... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans look futile as German activity falls European policymakers focused again last week on the need for growth in the region, with Wednesday’s informal EU summit ending in pledges to speed up structural reforms, strengthen job creation and... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rise back to underlying trend Our econometric model suggests that May is the month when payrolls growth snapped back in line with the underlying trend. We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in May, up... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Labour's share of income to continue trending lower Labour's share of income has been on a downward structural trend since the 1980s, resulting from the decline in labour's bargaining power, globalisation and technological progress. Not only will that... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery looks to be on firmer ground The US recovery looks to be on firmer ground, despite the mounting crisis in the euro-zone. We anticipate GDP growth of 2.0% this year and 2.5% in 2013. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Mar./Apr.) Labour market activity is still holding up surprisingly well. But pay growth remains exceptionally weak and we expect the return to recession to weigh on the jobs figures before long. 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker global economy to expose local vulnerabilities Relative to the rest of the world, at least, the immediate outlook for Latin America remains good. Nonetheless, vulnerabilities are starting to emerge in a number of the region’s economies, which are... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's surprising 58,200 gain in employment, which follows an almost equally impressive gain in the prior month (see chart), is welcomed news given the unusually weak figures that preceded it... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The very modest 115,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April will raise fears that the recovery is fading fast, just like it did at this time last year. We still think the true health of the labour... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Back into recession in Q1 The UK returned to recession in Q1, making this the weakest peacetime recovery in a century. Reasonably positive activity surveys for the first quarter raise some doubts about the ONS’s Q1 estimate... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weakening outlook fuels growth calls The growing calls for euro-zone policymakers to shift their emphasis from austerity to growth have been fuelled by the continued deterioration in the outlook for the economy. Key forward-looking... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. & Final Man. PMI (Mar./Apr.) The latest data on the state of the euro-zone labour market and manufacturing sector underline the enormity of the challenge facing policymakers to respond the growing calls for growth across the... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
