Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jul.) & Flash CPI (Aug.) The rise in euro-zone unemployment in July, coupled with the pick-up in inflation in August, supports the view that the downturn in household spending will intensify in the second half of this year. 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia's consumers far from immune to global problems We expect global demand to stay weak in coming quarters and for labour markets and consumer confidence in Asia to soften as a result. Central banks in the region are likely to ease further, which... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Payroll Survey (Jun.) & Balance of Payments (Q2) June's non-farm payroll survey data, which showed solid gains in average weekly earnings and employment, indicate that better second-quarter wages and salaries growth supported stronger consumption... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Fiscal cliff may hit hiring Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by around 100,000 in August, which would be disappointing after July’s 163,000 gain. What’s more, it is possible that in the... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly No respite in sight for Japan's manufacturers It was perhaps refreshing that last week there was at least one occasion when news from Japan drove markets elsewhere, rather than vice versa. Unfortunately, that news was bad, namely the weakness of... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to increase Canada's employment gains during its economic recovery have been far from broad-based and bolstered by an oversized contribution from the public sector. In addition, the official unemployment rate... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Downside risks abound Our baseline forecast for the US economy looks fairly benign, with GDP growth gradually picking up from 1.5% annualised in the second half of this year to 2.0% next year. However, we would stress that... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery starting to unravel Japan’s economy slowed sharply in the second quarter after strong growth in the first. The monthly activity data suggest that the recovery came to a halt towards the end of Q2, while forward-looking... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP revision won’t change big picture Last week brought yet more evidence that the economy did not do quite as badly in the second quarter as the preliminary GDP figures showed. That said, we have said before that only a massive revision... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uptick in incoming data not enough to sway the Fed Since the Fed signalled at the last FOMC meeting three weeks ago that it was poised to act, the incoming economic data have, somewhat ironically, suddenly started to improve. Despite the recent uptick... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Olympics to help sales maintain momentum After a slow start, it looks like the Olympic Games have provided a reasonable boost to high street spending. 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug. 12) & Labour market (Jun./Jul. 12) The minutes of August’s MPC meeting supported our view that more policy stimulus is likely before long. Meanwhile, the labour market remains puzzlingly resilient, but we doubt that this can last with... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India mired in stagflation The latest output and inflation data suggest India is now suffering from stagflation. Industrial production has stopped growing while inflation is stuck at around 7%. What’s more, there is little... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly No gold medal for the economy The Olympic mood was abruptly punctured by Mervyn King as he presented the Bank of England’s Inflation Report last week. Although the lower near-term profile for inflation was good news, this was... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul. 12) July's surprisingly large 30,400 decline in employment, following two months of paltry gains, is a bad start to the second half of this year. Admittedly, the underlying details were better than the... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's sub-par economic performance The below par 2% rate of Canadian GDP growth over the first half of this year must be a concern for policy makers, particularly when the chances are that growth will slow even further in the second... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
