UK Economics Focus Growth in workforce will help keep interest rates down Some have argued that strong job creation will rapidly push down unemployment to the MPC’s 7% threshold. But this overlooks developments in another determinant of the unemployment rate – growth in the... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Taking stock of Saudi Arabia’s migrant crackdown Saudi Arabia’s wide-scale crackdown on illegal migrant workers seems unlikely to have the desired effect of raising the employment of Saudi nationals in the private sector. In the short term, it runs... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland’s economy to stagnate in 2014 The latest economic data show that Finland’s economy is struggling to recover from the recent yearlong recession. With many more years of painful reform ahead, it is likely that GDP growth will... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economic activity picks up further Judging by the latest business surveys, activity in advanced economies has strengthened further. The global manufacturing PMI is now consistent on past form with world GDP growth of as much as 4%... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's stronger than expected 21,600 gain in employment was overshadowed by the decline in hours worked. Accordingly, the incoming data still points to slower fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment (Nov.) & Income/Spending (Oct.) The 203,000 increase in November's non-farm payrolls, along with the drop in the unemployment rate to a five-year low of 7.0%, gives the Fed all the evidence it needs to begin tapering its asset... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weak growth & strong euro keep pressure on ECB Having slowed almost to a halt in Q3, early indications suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is unlikely to have regained much momentum – if any – in the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation easing despite stronger recovery CPI inflation fell sharply from 2.7% to 2.2% in October and it looks likely to fall below the 2% target soon. Past falls in global agricultural commodity prices suggest that food price inflation will... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) & ADP Payrolls (Nov.) The trade deficit narrowed to $40.6bn in October, from $43.0bn, but that decline only partly reversed the widening in September. Looking through the month-to-month volatility, the trade deficit... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) The rise in wages in October largely reflects volatile overtime payments, while regular pay continues to fall. Looking ahead, there are a number of reasons to be sceptical about an acceleration in... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest news on euro-zone inflation and unemployment will do little to relieve the pressure on the ECB to take more action to support the fragile economic recovery and head off a potentially... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production (Oct.), Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Despite a slower-than-expected rise in industrial production in October, the outlook for the sector remains buoyant. Meanwhile, there are signs that domestic inflationary pressure is picking up even... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey, German Unemp. (Nov.) & Spa. GDP (Q3) November’s rise in the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a comforting sign given the recent falls in other indicators, like the composite PMI, but we still expect the recovery to... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low quality job creation to restrain income growth It is encouraging that, even allowing for the modest drop back in September, the payroll survey suggests employment growth picked up in the third quarter. Unfortunately, over the past year, payroll... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Good enough to taper? Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payroll employment rose by a solid 180,000 in November, which may be enough to prompt the Fed to taper its asset purchases at the policy meeting in... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan's dual labour market such a big problem? Japan’s dual labour market undoubtedly has some economic costs, as non-regular workers are much less productive than regular employees. However, the degree of labour market duality is not vastly... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
