Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Unemployment (Mar.) April’s drop in euro-zone inflation and the further rise in unemployment in March have added to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Improving sentiment still not matched in hard data Despite the widespread optimism about the benefits that “Abenomics” may eventually bring to Japanese businesses and households, the hard data continue to disappoint. In particular, industrial... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the economy as strong as the jobs figures suggest? The fact that the official measure of employment is now above its pre-recession peak, while GDP is still about 2.5% below its former high point, calls into question the reliability of the figures. We... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebound as weather distortion fades Our econometric model suggests that, although the labour market has weakened since earlier in the year, conditions are not quite as bad as March’s Employment Report suggested. We expect a rebound in... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Apr.) & Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) still seems to be in a state of paralysis ahead of the new Governor’s arrival in July, despite indications that the weakness of the economy is finally starting to... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The hare and the tortoise As the UK struggles to grow, she can only look on with envy at the budding recovery in the US. The UK will continue to lag behind for the foreseeable future. But further ahead, she should be able to... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shrinking workforce shouldn’t matter much to investors China passed a milestone last year as its working age population fell for the first time in the modern era. Demographic change will have a profound impact on the long-run trajectory of China’s economy... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) & Trade (Feb.) March's ugly 54,500 decline in employment offsets the previous month's equally surprising gain, leaving employment little changed over the first quarter of this year. Given recent sluggish GDP growth... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar. 13) The modest 88,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March is further evidence that the US economy is undergoing another spring slowdown, albeit from a pretty rapid pace of growth in the first quarter. 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) & Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The further rise in euro-zone unemployment in February, coupled with the low level of March’s manufacturing PMI, confirmed the underlying weakness of the economy. 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Retail Sales (Feb.) & Unemployment (Mar.) February’s German retail sales data suggest that spending rose in Q1. But sales are still falling compared to a year earlier and with March’s unemployment data confirming that the labour market... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Effects of sequester hard to see, but likely to be small It’s going to be almost impossible to observe what impact the sequester government spending cuts is having on the labour market. But we expect it will be fairly small. In any case, it is too soon for... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour market (Jan./Feb.) While March’s MPC minutes revealed that the three members who voted for more QE last month remained on their own in calling for more stimulus, we continue to think that the Committee will do more... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market inflation pressures won't amount to much The current signs of inflationary pressure in the labour market will probably amount to nothing. Although we are mindful that accelerating earnings growth could be an early indication that... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak hourly earnings limits wage growth The strong pick-up in Labour Force Survey hours worked suggest that first-quarter wages and salaries growth should improve from the modest 2.4% annualised gain posted in the fourth quarter of last... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Feb.) & Labour Costs (Q4) The latest figures on consumer prices and labour costs in the euro-zone emphasised that the inflation outlook presents no obstacles to the provision of further policy support from the ECB. 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
