UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Sep.) The latest regional data suggest that the northern regions of the UK have recently managed to grow at a similar, albeit sluggish, pace to those in the South. However, conditions in the northern labour... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) The latest news on the labour market confirmed that the downturn in the economy is having an increasingly adverse impact on both employment and wages growth. 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) There is no hint in September's Employment Report that another recession is starting. Nevertheless, the 103,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month is still consistent with what would normally be... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's employment gain of 60,900 was a positive surprise, but the underlying details of the jobs report were less spectacular. Even so, it suggests that economic growth overall fared better in... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Spending under pressure from weak labour market The decline in labour cash earnings is symptomatic of the deterioration in labour market conditions. With fewer workers employed and each earning less, consumer spending is likely to come under... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Sep./Aug.) On the face of it, the latest euro-zone CPI inflation and unemployment numbers would appear to reduce the chance of an imminent ECB rate cut. But with the economy on the cusp of recession and the debt... 1st October 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Businesses reluctant to boost headcounts Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of labour market indicators, suggests that for the second consecutive month the US economy as a whole failed to create any jobs in September. The... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Aug.) & Employment (Q2) The latest euro-zone CPI inflation data do nothing to alter our view that underlying price pressures are not as strong as the ECB fears and that official interest rates may fall around the turn of the... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jul./Aug.) September’s unexpectedly sharp rise in headline CPI inflation from 4.5% to 5.2% came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But the key point is that inflation is very close to a peak and should soon start to... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q2) Financial and business services (FBS) sector employment edged lower in Q2, which reinforces the downside risks to Central London office rental values. For now, supply constraints should see further... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Weak wage growth to underpin fragile domestic demand Mexico’s status as a low productivity economy means that jobs are created even at low rates of GDP growth. The problem, however, is that a surplus pool of labour, coupled with a growing population and... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The drop in August employment was disappointing and points to modest growth in household spending this quarter. The only redeeming quality in the jobs report was the rotation from part-time to full... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update American Jobs Act is big but politically polarising President Obama's newly proposed $450bn job creation bill is equivalent to nearly 3% of GDP, so if it was passed by Congress as it stands it would certainly have a significant impact on GDP growth in... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) Even after allowing for the disruption of the strike by 45,000 Verizon workers last month, the stagnation in payroll employment is an ominous sign. The monthly gain in payrolls has now been below 100... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jul./Aug.) The news that euro-zone core inflation remained very low in August while unemployment rose further in July should reduce any remaining inflation fears at the ECB, adding to expectations of possible... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s unemployment set to stay in double digits until 2013 Egypt’s second quarter unemployment data, in keeping with other industrial indicators, reflect the poor overall state of the economy. Although the jobless rate appears to have levelled off (at just... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
