Japan Data Response Services PMI (Jun.) & Labour Cash Earnings (May) The recovery in the services sector has not been as strong nor as quick as in the manufacturing sector. Momentum is fading as we enter Q3, but firms are optimistic that reconstruction efforts will... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) Growth in remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) to the Philippines has slowed since the 2008-09 global crisis. However, we believe that remittances growth is likely to stabilise rather than... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Slowdown sustained Our econometric model suggests that the discouraging 54,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in May was followed by a slightly less disappointing 80,000 gain in June. That may go someway to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Jun.) June’s euro-zone CPI inflation figures are likely to prompt the ECB to maintain a pretty hawkish tone at next week’s press conference. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions (Q2), Cons. Conf. (Jun.) & Pay settlements (May) There was little in the Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions Survey to suggest that bank lending is set to pick up any time soon. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, May) & Employment (Q1) May’s small fall in euro-zone CPI inflation is unlikely to prevent the ECB from hiking interest rates again in July. But with Q1’s weak employment figures supporting our view that domestic demand will... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Apr./May) The labour market figures are still giving a bit of a mixed picture about how well the jobs recovery is faring. But the squeeze on real pay is very clear – reinforcing our concerns about the outlook... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) At first glance May's labour force survey appears respectable, with 22,300 jobs added and a material drop in the unemployment rate, from 7.6% to 7.4%. The details, however, are not as encouraging and... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Second quarter shaping up to be as weak as the first The data released last week strongly suggested that the recovery has hit its second "soft patch" which, for an expansion that is less than two years old, is troubling to say the least. Admittedly... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The very disappointing 54,000 increase in May's non-farm payrolls, down sharply from a 232,000 gain in April, will undoubtedly lead to calls for the Fed to continue with its large-scale asset... 3rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Worst nearly over but recovery fragile Japanese industry appears to be overcoming the initial disruption caused by the earthquake. Industrial production started to recover in April and is expected to rebound through May and June. The... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Saudi economy manage without foreign workers? The announcement by Saudi Arabia’s government that foreign worker visas will not be renewed beyond six years will be a major blow for the country’s private sector. If the plans are implemented, there... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (May/Apr.) May’s slight drop in euro-zone CPI inflation is unlikely to prompt the ECB to tone down its hawkishness. Interest rates are set to rise again in July. 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Labour data still to feel full impact of earthquake Employment and wages are bound to be much slower to respond to the Great East Japan Earthquake than either production or sales, but the business and consumer surveys suggest that the labour market... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview A temporary slowdown Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of indicators, suggests that payroll employment increased by around 150,000 in May. That would be the smallest increase since January and would be... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 244,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April will come as something of a relief to the financial markets, particularly after the surge in initial jobless claims reported yesterday and the slump... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
