UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery strengthens and broadens The economic recovery still seems to be gathering speed. The 0.8% quarterly rise in GDP in the third quarter was the strongest expansion seen since Q2 2010. And whereas a year or so ago, the recovery... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Accounting for the government shutdown The Federal government shutdown won't have had a major bearing on payroll employment, which we estimate rose by around 140,000 in October. But it will have put a dent in the alternative household... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment figures provide another clear signal that the recovery is still very fragile and will increase pressure on the ECB to take further action to support the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Any fall in French unemployment will be largely illusory Contrary to expectations, French President François Hollande may fulfil his promise to reduce unemployment by the end of the year. But he will do so by relying on temporary initiatives rather than... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) & Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) The manufacturing PMI reached a three-year high in October and points to a further rebound in industrial production in coming months. Meanwhile, labour cash earnings edged up in September, but the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & ADP Payrolls (Oct.) The decline in CPI inflation in September and signs of weaker jobs growth in October support the now widespread view that the Fed won’t begin to taper its monthly asset purchases until next year. 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in South African unemployment needs context South Africa’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 2011 in Q3 but, while this is encouraging, it needs to be seen in a wider context. Unemployment remains above its natural rate, which... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales (Sep.) & Small Business Confidence (Oct.) Today's data show that economic momentum remains strong. Small business confidence and retail sales both reached new multi-year highs, helped by strong employment gains. 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What's behind the slowdown in jobs growth? A satisfactory explanation for the easing in jobs growth is hard to find, but a fading of the fiscal drag and a further pick up in overseas demand means it probably won’t be sustained for long. We... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone still on track for a grinding recovery Although the Bank of Spain’s Q3 GDP estimate suggested that Spain may have exited its two-year recession, the fall in the euro-zone composite PMI in October highlighted that the region’s economic... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep 13.) Despite the further decline in the unemployment rate to a five-year low of 7.2% in September, from 7.3%, the disappointing 148,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month will reinforce market... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Why South Africa needs a weaker rand The South African rand was one of the hardest hit EM currencies during the summer sell-off and has now fallen by 15% against the US$ since the start of the year. However, as this Watch explains, a... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ILO unemployment won’t necessarily follow claimant count down The claimant count measure of unemployment has been falling more sharply than the wider ILO measure used by the MPC in its forward guidance on interest rates. While the claimant count is a timelier... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) The latest labour market figures supported the MPC’s (and our own) view that even a fairly robust economic recovery will bring unemployment down only slowly. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Oct.) We think that this Wednesday’s labour market figures will show that the unemployment rate held steady in August, which could prompt markets to push back further their expected timing of the first rise... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New housing activity spread signalling slowdown ahead The historically high number of housing units under construction justifies the current strength of construction employment. But the negative spread between housing starts and completions signals that... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
