Canada Economics Update Strong payrolls survey encouraging for third-quarter GDP The recent strength in non-farm payroll data, which have showed solid gains in both employment and average weekly earnings, indicates that an improvement in third-quarter wages and salaries growth... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are the labour market statistics telling the real story? In explaining the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ – the conundrum of a dismal GDP performance combined with strong employment growth – one possibility is that the GDP figures are understating the actual... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Oct.) & Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) October’s MPC minutes showed that the Committee is split over whether to do more quantitative easing (QE) once the current round of asset purchases are completed in the next couple of weeks. 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Seasonal problems with the U6 unemployment rate Jack Welch's tweet wasn't the only piece of nonsense written last week about the reported decline in the unemployment rate to 7.8% in September. The decline in the standard measure was questioned by... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers' Survey (Sep. 12) The continued sharp fall in confidence revealed in the latest Economy Watchers’ Survey adds to the evidence that the economy contracted in the third quarter. The outlook component is equally weak... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's consensus blowing 52,100 gain in employment seems at odds with the recent lacklustre pace of GDP growth. The increase in the unemployment rate, to 7.4%, from 7.3% in August, is more... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) While the modest 114,000 increase in September's non-farm payrolls was no better than the consensus forecast, the 86,000 upward revision to job gains in the two months before that and the decline in... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is America a country of part-timers? The sharp rise in the share of employees working part-time may not be as big a concern as it seems at first sight. After all, most of these extra part-timers are still working between 30 and 35 hours... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Leading indicators point to falls in employment ahead The latest leading labour market indicators suggest that the recent recovery in private sector employment is likely to run out of steam soon. So, with job cuts continuing in the public sector, it... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Leading indicators of unemployment rate provide little hope The indicators that provide some steer of where the unemployment rate is heading over the next few months supply little evidence that it will dip below 8%. What’s more, we doubt that GDP growth will... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.) & Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The rise in euro-zone unemployment in August, coupled with the still low level of the manufacturing PMI, adds to the evidence that the region is in a deepening and broadening recession. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview No signs of faster jobs growth Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment rose by around 100,000 in September, which would suggest that labour market conditions remain lacklustre. 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: much depends on IMF deal as fiscal challenges mount The fact that the Egyptian government intends to increase public sector employment in the next fiscal year adds to our view that its fiscal deficit target for 2012/13 is too optimistic. We think that... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jul./Aug.) The latest labour market figures revealed that employment has continued to grow, despite the underlying stagnation of output. However, we remain concerned that the labour market’s exceptional... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses boost hiring plans The modest rebound in the NFIB small business optimism index to a three-month high of 92.9 in August, from 91.2, is encouraging, but the index is still well below its pre-recession level, suggesting... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update No quick fix for South Africa's mining sector The structural problems in South Africa’s mining sector have been brought starkly into focus by the ongoing bout of labour unrest. Although it is difficult to predict to how events will pan out from... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
