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Wage growth likely to slow again

Labour cash earnings expanded at the fastest pace since 1997 in July. Given recent, much slower, gains in productivity and the low likelihood of significant further tightening in the labour market, we expect wage growth to slow again as the summer bonus season draws to an end. Our analysis suggests that earnings growth will settle at around 1% y/y – too slow to drive inflation to the BoJ’s 2% target.

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