Emerging Markets Economic Outlook One extreme to the other Having been too optimistic on the outlook for the emerging world over much of the past five years, the consensus has now shifted too far in the other direction. Economic and financial vulnerabilities... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery’s wheels not falling off, despite Q3 slowdown The latest business surveys made for dismal reading. Indeed, the average level of the economy-wide Markit/CIPS composite PMI over Q3 as a whole points to quarterly growth in GDP of just 0.5%... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Brexit mean for the UK economy? We doubt that the UK’s outlook hinges on the Brexit question. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Union (EU) was a big deal for the UK. We think that the UK economy will do... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy back in recession Japan’s economy probably shrank for a second straight quarter in Q3. With the economic recovery grinding to a halt, the chances of hitting the Bank’s 2%inflation by next summer are dwindling rapidly... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market fundamentals remain solid The slowdown in employment growth in August and September will probably delay the first interest rate hike until early 2016, but it doesn’t appear to be the start of a sustained deterioration in... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.) Wage growth slowed in August as the summer bonus season came to an end, underlining that the tight labour market has yet to generate noticeable cost pressures. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to delay rate hike until early 2016 The incoming economic data have been a lot more mixed recently, with the awful performance of exports and manufacturing, both dragged down by the dollar’s strength, now being compounded by a slowdown... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Few winners from weak US payrolls The disappointing US jobs report for September will clearly do little to improve investor confidence in the global economy. Yes, it will probably delay the first interest rate hike from the Fed until... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) While it’s always important not to over-react to one single data release, we’ll make an exception in this case. The chances of a rate hike by the Fed this year just went way down. Payroll employment... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How did the euro-zone economy perform in Q3? The hard data available so far for Q3, as well as the more timely activity surveys, suggest that the economy performed fairly well last quarter. GDP growth probably maintained its pace from Q2 and may... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Household Spending (Aug.) The renewed rise in “core” household spending in August suggests that private consumption rebounded last quarter. But we still expect GDP to shrink as a result of falling investment and net exports. 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Is the consumer recovery running out of steam? The consumer outlook has dimmed slightly over the summer, suggesting that the economic recovery needs to become more broad-based if it is to gain momentum. The Q2 GDP breakdown showed that the... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to hold fire despite stronger labour market The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) does not seem too concerned by risks from China, while the recent pick-up in wage growth will worry the hawks on the Committee. Indeed, markets have probably gone... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) While today’s Tankan was not as bad as most had feared, it nonetheless corroborates other signs that Japan’s economic recovery has ground to a halt. 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) The return of inflation to negative territory in the euro-zone, as well as the continued high rate of unemployment, will heap further pressure on the ECB to increase its stimulus. 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s crisis deepens Brazil has slipped deeper into crisis over the past month. The slump in the real economy has gathered pace, with our GDP Tracker now suggesting the output could have contracted by up to 4% y/y in Q3... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
