Canada Chart Pack January rate cut won't be enough insurance The futures market indicates that most investors are now convinced by the Bank of Canada's view that the January interest rate cut will be enough to prevent the economy from being derailed by the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation starting to firm Core inflation is beginning to show signs of firming. The rebound in the annual core CPI inflation rate to 1.8% in March may not be enough to leave Fed officials "reasonably confident" that inflation... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Reasons to remain upbeat on Mexico Despite a recession in the mining sector and an impending fiscal squeeze, we remain upbeat about Mexico. A gradual improvement in the labour market and a likely recovery in the US, after a weak start... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC steps up policy support Sunday’s cut to the required reserve ratio for China’s banks signals a stepping-up of policy support. The 100bp cut was double the usual size and the first move on this scale since late 2008. It is... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook More winners than losers The pace of global growth slowed in the first quarter, but it is likely to recover during the rest of the year and in 2016. The windfall gains from lower oil prices, rising employment and continued... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (Feb.) The labour market has regained considerable momentum following the slowdown in the second half of last year. Accordingly, the demand for commercial property space, and thus rental value growth, is... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Feb./Mar.) The UK’s employment miracle shows no signs of drawing to a close. And with some slack still left in the labour market and pay growth not yet threatening the 2% inflation target, the MPC remains under... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Don’t underestimate the economy’s hidden slack Economists and policymakers are significantly overestimating the permanent damage inflicted to the economy from the financial crisis and recession. We still think that the economy has the potential to... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Mar.) Australian employment rose by 37,700 in March, adding to signs that the economy has made a reasonably healthy start to the year. However, we doubt this will last for long. With GDP growth set to slow... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New government will struggle to revive Finland’s economy The opposition Centre Party looks likely to be the largest party in a coalition government after Finland’s general election on 19th April. But the outcome of the election is unlikely to have a major... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) Employment rose by 28,700 in March, more than anyone expected, though not by enough to reduce the jobless rate from 6.8%. The details, however, were less impressive. Even so, the odds of a rate cut by... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we trust the upbeat business surveys? The last few weeks have seen mixed messages on the health of the economic recovery, with the upbeat tone of the business surveys contrasting with initial official estimates of output in the first two... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will Australian households rescue the economy? The apparent acceleration in consumption growth in the first quarter will boost hopes that, despite the end of the mining boom, the Australian economy will avoid a sharp slowdown. Unfortunately, the... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Most of Emerging Asia set for faster growth Most economies in Emerging Asia are likely to record decent growth over the next couple of years. However, with the pace of expansion in the region’s biggest economy, China, set to ease further in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery prospects clouded by Greece Recent indicators have brought signs of a renewed recovery in the euro-zone economy, reflecting the beneficial effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro exchange rate. But the picture... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth to recover after weak Q1 For a second successive year, global GDP growth dropped sharply in Q1 due to a slowdown in the US and China. But business surveys, which may be a better gauge of the underlying health of the economy... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
