Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs can weather Fed lift-off – problems could come later With a Fed rate hike sometime this year now widely anticipated, we suspect that any volatility in EM markets when the Fed finally raises rates should prove short-lived. The much bigger risk for... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Evidence mounts of a big second-quarter rebound There is now a wide mix of evidence showing that, after a very weak start to the year, the economy is booming again. May is turning out to be a particularly strong month: Existing home sales hit a six... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising jobs vacancy rate a lagging indicator The increase in the national jobs vacancy rate over the past year suggests that the economy has withstood the oil price shock. Closer examination, however, reveals that this measure lags economic... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rates to rise more rapidly than Fed's projections imply Our working assumption is still that the Fed will end up raising the fed funds rate three times this year, taking it to a range of between 0.75% and 1.00% by year-end. But we wouldn't be completely... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Foreign investment into Egypt showing signs of a revival The slowdown in Egypt’s economy since the start of the year has been disappointing, but there are at least encouraging signs that the government’s reform programme is starting to bear fruit. Indeed... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay growth back to pre-crisis rates Alongside strong employment growth and virtually zero inflation, households are now enjoying a significant recovery in wage growth. Annual growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses picked up... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jun.) & Labour Data (Apr./May) The latest labour market figures contained further signs of a pick-up in nominal wage growth. If this continues without any recovery in productivity, then a rate rise could come back on the table this... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Chancellor’s budget surplus law a step too far? Last week’s announcement by the Chancellor that he intends to pass a law to require all future governments to run a budget surplus “in normal times” engendered more accusations that he is playing... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (May.) The 42,000 gain in Australian employment in May will no doubt add to claims that Australia’s economy has weathered the end of the mining boom well. However, the reading almost certainly exaggerates... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Consumers stifled by banking sector and labour market woes Indian consumers have struggled in recent months despite the tailwinds of lower inflation and reductions in interest rates. This can be explained in part by continued problems in the labour market and... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLTs surveys show labour market strength The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys illustrate that the bigger than expected gain in employment in May was no fluke. Labour market conditions are strengthening and wage growth will accelerate further. 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) The small drop in consumer confidence last month masks a rebound in households’ income expectations, which suggests that they may increasingly be willing to spend some of the windfall from lower... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The fact that the economy generated a surprisingly strong 58,900 jobs in May suggests that it is holding up against the oil price shock better than we had expected. This supports the Bank of Canada... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Back from the dead? The news last week that first-quarter productivity slumped while unit labour costs soared should be viewed with some scepticism, since the non-farm business sector figures are distorted by the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The 280,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, which was well above the 225,000 consensus forecast but bang in line with our own call, adds to the evidence that the US economy is regaining momentum... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
