Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) Wage growth remained strong in January even though the winter bonus season came to an end, and may pick up further after the spring wage negotiations. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s continued fall in euro-zone consumer prices and the still-high rate of unemployment in January confirm that the ECB faces an uphill battle against the threat of deflation. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to cope with commodity collapse The plunge in the prices of the key commodity exports of both Australia and New Zealand late last year will soon filter through into weaker domestic activity, resulting in GDP growth this year slowing... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update 10 key calls on Australia and New Zealand Our full analysis of the prospects for the Australian and New Zealand economies is contained in ourAustralia & New Zealand Economic Outlook (sent to clients today), but in this note we highlight ten... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed positions itself for a June rate hike In her congressional testimony last week, Chair Janet Yellen appeared to lay the groundwork for the Fed to begin raising rates in June. Yes, the exact timing is still data dependent. But assuming we... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Delay to Nigeria’s election puts naira under pressure The delay to Nigeria’s election and the controversy over the alleged misappropriation of oil revenues have cast the spotlight on the country’s weak governance. After the decision to delay the election... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Unemployment, Household Spending & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Industrial output surged last month and the job market remains tight despite a jump in the unemployment rate. However, consumer spending is sluggish and the ongoing slowdown in inflation increases the... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Brief deflation won't hold up the Fed Although the CPI inflation rate dipped into negative territory in January, this bout of deflation is likely to be brief and it won't prevent the Fed from beginning to raise its policy rate from near... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Weather and port dispute are downside risks Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls increased by a slightly more modest 230,000 in February, down from an average monthly gain of 336,000 over the preceding three months. It is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London set for period of underperformance While housing market activity has been easing across the country, London has experienced by far the largest slowdown. Demand has contracted sharply thanks to prices which have reached a record high in... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Tight labour market in Taiwan providing boost to consumption A tight labour market in Taiwan is feeding through to stronger wage growth, which in turn is providing a boost to household consumption. The improving prospects for the consumer sector are a key... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Deflation to have limited impact on pay round With inflation set to turn negative during the busiest time of the year for pay bargaining, the MPC will be on red alert for any signs that deflation is having a knock-on effect on pay deals... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen positions the Fed for a June rate hike Chair Janet Yellen's prepared congressional testimony, which struck a more upbeat tone on labour market conditions and included a detailed discussion of how the forward guidance will be amended... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Feb.) Despite a modest rebound in February, small business confidence remains weak. 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Retail sales recovery to remain robust Although retail sales volumes were a whopping 5.4% higher in January than a year ago, this does not have the hallmarks of an unsustainable boom. The average price of retail purchases has fallen by... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tightening job market should see off deflation threat The latest inflation figures, showing CPI inflation easing to a record low of 0.3% in January, naturally took up most of the column inches last week. It was therefore easy to overlook the latest... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
