UK Data Response Labour market data (Jun./Jul.) The latest labour market figures supported the current consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee that interest rates do not need to rise before the end of the year. 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (Jun) From a property perspective the latest dip in job creation needs to be offset against the corresponding rise in productivity and profits that it implies. And if we are right that the falls in... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slump in productivity growth is the no.1 economic problem Ignore the 1.3% annualised rebound in non-farm productivity in the second quarter, which barely reversed the 1.1% decline in the first quarter. The bigger story is the almost unprecedented weakness of... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery unlikely to slow sharply next year Strong growth in household spending this year will give way to a weaker performance in 2016. But this slowdown will not be severe and the medium-term outlook is bright. 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Employment increased by 6,600 in July, more evidence that the recent declines in output haven't been severe enough to induce employers to slash jobs. For the time being that's comforting. But if the... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC still too cautious on productivity Once again, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised many by the extent of its downward revision to the inflation forecast in its latest Inflation Report and the Governor poured cold water on... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can the Spanish economy keep its place in the sun? Spain is set to remain the fastest growing of the major euro-zone economies for the next few quarters. But while the economy’s fundamentals have improved, the recent impressive growth rates also rest... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore at 50: facing life after the miracle As Singapore celebrates its 50th anniversary since independence on 9th August, it can look back on a half-century in which it achieved enormous economic success. However, the country goes into its... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Our take on the labour market puzzle While our analysis suggests that it is the surprising leap in the unemployment rate in Australia in July that is sending the false signal and not the surprising strength of employment growth, there... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth set to recover further Global growth rebounded in the second quarter and the latest business surveys suggest that it has picked up further at the beginning of Q3. Growing fears of a hard landing in China have weighed on... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why hasn’t the German recovery taken off? Hopes that Germany would drive a strong euro-zone recovery have faded as subdued demand for its exports has offset the boost from a weaker euro. This trend is set to continue. And as the consumer... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Jul.) Another sizeable gain in Australian employment in July has continued the remarkably strong run of recent months. However, today's data also showed a sharp rise in labour force participation, which has... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack More deflation on the way The UK is heading for a renewed period of deflation. The fall back in oil prices to below $50 per barrel will bear down on petrol prices soon. In addition, sterling has continued to appreciate and on... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Labour market recovery stalls While the euro-zone economy has continued to weather the ongoing Greek crisis reasonably well, one potentially worrying recent development is the apparent slowdown in the labour market recovery. Not... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s recovery and reforms show no signs of boosting jobs The Italian economy’s tentative return to growth and recent structural reforms are unlikely to feed into a meaningful labour market recovery for some time yet. So frustrations with Mr Renzi’s... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) Labour cash earnings fell the most since the 2009 recession during the first month of the summer bonus season, highlighting that the tight labour market has not created stronger wage pressures. 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
