UK Economics Update How much will workers gain from the recovery? While we are positive about the prospects for productivity growth, we don’t think workers will fully benefit from this and the gains will only partially feed through to higher wage growth. This means... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A weak start to the year Hard data for the fourth quarter of last year, including GDP estimates for some countries and industrial production and retail sales figures for the region as a whole, suggest that euro-zone GDP... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4) The astonishing plunge in the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of last year, to a six-year low of 5.3% from 6.0% in the third quarter, decreases the chances that the RBNZ will reduce interest... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s fall in euro-zone unemployment was encouraging, but the rate remains too high to boost wage growth. And the still deeply negative rate of producer price inflation points to more... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Dec.) Today’s activity data were disappointing and suggest that Japan’s economy barely grew last quarter. While activity should recover in Q1, the moderation in underlying inflation suggests that the Bank... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Base effects will temporarily depress wage growth Our econometric model points to a solid 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which should lower the unemployment rate to 4.9%, leaving it in line with the Fed’s median estimate of the long... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Job creation and supply shortages support rents The recovery in rental value growth has continued to plateau. This, however, does not imply that rents are due to correct as the positive economic outlook and supply shortages should underpin rental... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Low underlying inflation to prompt more rate cuts We continue to believe that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand won’t accelerate at all this year from last year’s disappointing rates of around 2.3%. A further weakening in the outlook for... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Oil price fall dents hopes for stabilisation in Russia The latest fall in oil prices and in the ruble since the start of the year has dealt a blow to hopes that Russia’s economy would stabilise in the near future. Fiscal policy is likely to be tightened... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The manufacturing PMI remained strong in January and suggests that economy activity continued to recover at a solid pace. 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has wage growth slowed? The latest labour market figures showed that pay growth is still weaker than it was a few months ago. Given falling unemployment and the prospect of a rebound in inflation, this should be temporary... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has wage growth slowed? The latest labour market figures showed that pay growth is still weaker than it was a few months ago. Given falling unemployment and the prospect of a rebound in inflation, this should be temporary... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (November) Jobs numbers continue to point to improving occupier demand. That said, the regional breakdown of employment is uneven and it suggests that occupier markets and rents in the North West look well... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Nov./Dec.) Today’s figures showed that strong labour market activity did not prevent a further slowdown in pay growth, suggesting that an interest rate hike is still some way off. 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec.) The recent improvement in Australia’s labour market was maintained in December, which should go some way to relieving the current downward pressure on equity prices and the Australian dollar. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint as consumer recovery slows While the euro-zone economy ended last year with some momentum, expectations of a further acceleration in growth in 2016 will be disappointed. The boost to consumer spending from the decline in oil... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
