Our econometric model points to a solid 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which should lower the unemployment rate to 4.9%, leaving it in line with the Fed’s median estimate of the long run equilibrium rate. Otherwise, we’ve pencilled in a 0.3% m/m increase in average hourly earnings, but base effects mean that the annual rate would fall to 2.1%, from 2.5%.
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