UK Economics Update Brexit would allow a more sensible migration policy It is generally assumed that a UK exit from the EU would lead to a sharp drop in migration, reducing the pool of labour and undermining economic growth. However, a Brexit could lead to a more sensible... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Impact of strong dollar to fade next year External deflationary pressure from the strong dollar and lower commodity prices will continue to keep both headline and core inflation unusually low in the shortterm . The strong dollar's downward... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Reality bites Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well this year, but policymakers cannot delay the adjustment to low oil prices much longer. Tighter fiscal policy looms. Large savings and low debt levels mean... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How far will interest rates rise? The peak rate of interest in the next tightening cycle is likely to be lower than in the past. Indeed, we estimate that the so-called “neutral rate” is now only around 3% in the US and UK and... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency falls compound inflation troubles for some EMs While inflation in the EM world is low on average, there are big divergences. In particular, many of the economies already struggling with high inflation are also those that have seen their currencies... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Reasons for optimism are few and far between The past month has seen a raft of very bad news from key African economies. New government figures show that growth slowed in Q2 in Ghana and that South Africa’s economy actually contracted. Forward... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What’s behind the rebound in “core-core” inflation? A closely-watched measure of underlying inflation in Japan has rebounded recently, raising hopes that the Bank of Japan’s easing efforts are finally gaining traction. But most of the rebound in “core... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update New “arrows” don’t change the outlook for Japan’s economy Prime Minister Abe’s announcement of new targets does not alter the outlook for the economy. In the absence of tangible policies to boost productivity and stem the decline in the working-age... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Domestic strength counters external weakness GDP growth is now on track for a solid 2.5% gain in 2015. We had previously anticipated that growth would accelerate to nearer 3.0% in 2016 but, given the weakness of global demand and the dollar’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Alarm bells sound in key economies Worries about slowing growth in China and tightening monetary policy in America have dented some of the optimism surrounding African economies. But the consensus is still far too bullish about the... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to slow… but that’s okay Our econometric model points to a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September. We expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.1%. With the job openings rate comfortably at a record high... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Slowdown becomes a little sharper Although we wouldn’t recommend placing too much weight on the quarterly rate of GDP growth in any one quarter, the respective 0.2% and 0.4% rises in Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central & South Eastern Europe a rare EM bright spot Emerging Europe remains a region of two halves. Its two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – will continue to struggle over the coming years as cyclical downturns compound long-standing structural... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Are the wages data misleading us? Some BoJ Board Members have cast doubt on the accuracy of the monthly wage data, which show tepid income growth. By contrast, we think these figures reflect the circumstances of Japan’s workers fairly... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Faster wage growth unlikely to panic MPC Although the US Fed kept interest rates on Thursday, a rate rise across the pond is not far away. And on the face of it, the pick-up in UK pay growth revealed last week suggested that the Bank of... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fed inaction highlights need for more ECB stimulus The boost to activity and inflation from the euro’s weakening since last summer will soon begin to fade. The ECB might feel that it can wait for tighter monetary policy in the US to drag the euro... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
